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We now estimate that the output loss due to the Brexit vote amounts to about 2% of GDP, or £35 billion. The negative drag from the Brexit vote has increased somewhat since our last estimation and now amounts to roughly £350 million a week. Under current OECD forecast, we expect the output loss to increase to 3.4% of GDP by end-2019.
In truth, the Buzzfeed leak doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. It's a bit less severe than the Treasury analysis from before the referendum, but it's playing in the same sandpit. It's broadly in line, if a little more moderate, than most of the analysis conducted before and after the referendum.
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said Sept. 17 that leaving the European Union without a deal could hurt Britain's economy.
The sole economic modelling exercise showing material benefits for the UK from Brexit has been debunked as “doubly misleading”, further demolishing the argument that for Britain “no deal would be better than a bad deal” when it comes to the EU.
... the most hard-core Brexiters cannot articulate a deal that they prefer and has the slightest prospect of winning EU approval. Supporters of Brexit made incredible promises that had no basis in reality. / This matters greatly to Japan. Britain is the gateway to Europe for many Japanese companies. / Failure to reach a deal with the EU, for whatever reason, would be a disaster for the U.K.
US Embassy staff discussing Brexit. They know Brexit is a disaster and that the British Govt are not telling the public that 52% voted for something that's likely to be "very very bad".
Ireland has said it will demand hundreds of millions of euros from Brussels if there is a no-deal Brexit, amid growing fears Britain is set to crash out of the European Union without an agreement. / Ireland is likely to be hit particularly hard by a no-deal outcome, with the country’s farming industry heavily reliant on trade with the UK.
The European Parliament has commissioned dozens of impact assessments or studies on Brexit from experts, across a broad range of policy areas, which are publicly available online. This webpage will be regularly updated to include further relevant publications.
Sir Martin shared his insight on what challenges the Government is facing, what the Government and business should do now and how the UK seeks to forge new trading relationships outside of the European Union.
PIIE President Adam Posen says that the United Kingdom’s choice to close itself off from the European single market will damage Britain’s economy.
Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics president, discusses U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit speech on Friday.
The costs of Brexit are growing, and that dividend is still elusive. / As Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union enter their crunch moment, let’s be clear on one thing: The EU doesn’t need to punish Britain for leaving; the referendum did that just fine.
A slew of UK economic forecasts depending on a Withdrawal Agreement, or a No Deal Brexit. How are the numbers looking for UK PM Theresa May in the House of Commons for that crucial vote on December 11? And what does Norway Plus mean?
A no-deal Brexit would be an economic and social “catastrophe”, a senior banking industry leader has warned.
Leaving the EU with no deal in place would cause 'irreparable harm' to the UK economy, business group warned.
Public spat as rating agency insists Theresa May’s Florence speech has not altered big picture of likely Brexit damage to the economy.
CBI appeals to Tory MPs to shift position to avoid a no-deal Brexit, or risk further harm to the economy.
Threatening a no deal Brexit "is a problem for the EU", but a "catastrophe" for the UK, former Prime Minister Tony Blair has told the Today programme. He said it would cause "enormous" and "profound damage" to the UK economy.
Areas more heavily reliant on exports and manufacturing likely to be most severely damaged, Confederation of British Industry finds.
The Central Bank has warned that a no-deal Brexit could reduce the growth rate of the Irish economy by up to 4% this year.
Pressure mounts on Theresa May to take no-deal off the ta
The think tank study indicates GDP would be 2.3 per cent higher had the UK voted to remain in the EU.
The UK economy is 2.5 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford talks to Beth Oppenheim about his latest analysis, how he has refined his modelling method and the implications of the findings.
New analysis by the CER – which we will update quarterly – estimates that the UK economy is 2.1 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. The knock-on hit to the public finances is now £23 billion per annum – or £440 million a week.
The UK economy is around 2 per cent smaller as a result of the vote to leave the EU. John Springford speaks to Sophia Besch about his analysis, his modelling method and the implications of the result.