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I have started reading the Brexit literature again. A recent paper – ‘What impact is Brexit having on the UK economy?’ by Graham Gudgin, Julian Jessop and Harry Western (GJW) from October 2022 argues there is no hard evidence of harm and that studies that claim to find harm are biased and/or incompetent! In this blog, I consider a few of their points in four areas.
The OBR forecast that Brexit would cost the UK economy 4% of GDP now looks ridiculously optimistic as the damage mounts.
Economy 5.5 per cent smaller than if Leave referendum hadn’t happened, says think tank.
EU officials have derided the British Government’s ‘chaotic’ approach to negotiations and said the much-reviled ‘Swiss mess’ is ‘not on the table’.
"Around half of the fiscal hole, and the political instability that comes with that, is down to Brexit," John Springford of the Centre for European Reform.
Real pay set to be £470 lower per worker each year, say top economists. / “We can’t blame Brexit for all of the 5.2 per cent GDP shortfall … but it’s apparent that Brexit is largely to blame,” said John Springford, author of the CEF study.
Figures on the cost of Brexit reported by ITV last week could have given a misleading impression of the cost of leaving the EU.
A study by the Centre for European Reform reveals the “troubling” cost of Brexit and says the losses are now too big to ignore.