31 January marks the two-year anniversary of the UK’s official withdrawal from the EU. Investment Monitor examines how hard Brexit has hit the UK economy so far.

While the picture’s hardly pretty and certainly not what advocates of Brexit envisioned, none of it surprises economists. As a former Bank of England official observed: “You run a trade war against yourself, bad things happen.”

Far from minimal disruption, the full impact of leaving the EU may take 15 years to appear.

But so far, it’s not looking good: a hit to trade of this size entails big structural changes to the British economy, with capital and workers being shifted between sectors of the economy, businesses going bust, and higher prices for imports eroding living standards.