Economic hardship and war have not pushed Europe’s nations apart, but closer together.

Jonathan Portes assesses the extent to which predictions about trade and migration before the Brexit vote have materialised, highlighting that trade has been reduced by additional barriers but the extent to which liberalisation would increase migration flows in the short term was underestimated.

Joe Marshall says the government’s latest decision to delay full border checks on EU imports is only storing up problems – and creating news ones.

Brexit is barely nine months old but is not ageing well. The ‘fabulous’ deal that Prime Minister Johnson and Brexit negotiator Lord Frost raved about last December, has lost all its shine – especially, it seems, to those who polished it. Having persuaded parliament to vote for it as the lesser of two evils, both Johnson and Frost have fallen out of love with their offspring.

In January 2020, as Britain was about to exit the EU, a post appeared on the London School of Economics (LSE) blog musing about the mechanism and conditions that might apply if Britain ever wanted to re-join.

As the EU finally ratifies the Brexit trade deal, attention shifts to some major loose ends.

'The French in the UK had a sense of being abandoned. They said, ‘yesterday we were Londoners and today we are foreigners’

But a closer inspection of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) renders these statements largely illusory for the pharma sector. While pharma companies grapple with the effects of Brexit, there are undoubtedly a number of ways that the TCA benefits the sector, while leaving significant issues unanswered.

Every negative consequence of Brexit for the UK and the clear advantage for the EU is alerting the British public to the realities of Boris Johnson’s deal. As investment slows and jobs go elsewhere there will only be one person to blame – Boris Johnson.

A month into Britain’s “independence” from the world’s largest trading bloc and second-largest economy, EU–UK relations have got off to a shaky start, and the first cracks are showing.

The former head of the government legal service resigned when No 10 threatened to break an international treaty. With the difficult reality of Brexit now upon us, I asked whether we risk a repeat offence.

Many UK exports won’t qualify for preferential terms.

Closer inspection of the text signed on 24th December shows that those who expected “no deal” were not entirely wrong. Many aspects of the future relationship between the UK and EU remain to be negotiated.

We have traded real influence for an empty husk of sovereignty.

If the UK leaves the European Union single market without a suitable trade deal, then electricity trade with its European Union partners could be disrupted. New research estimates the 2030 cost of a hard electricity Brexit to Britain at €300 million per year.

Some of the world’s leading Brexit analysts tell Adam Forrest how they assess the chances of a UK-EU free trade deal before 31 December.

Another Brexit advertising campaign. They've replaced sporting events as signs of the changing seasons. Instead of Wimbledon or the Olympics, we get Michael Gove talking gibberish on television and further millions poured into preparedness exercises for an outcome with no tangible benefits.

An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations.

The biggest crisis of Brexit to date actually still lies ahead of us in late 2020.

With the UK election in full swing, the EU is already preparing itself for the next stage of the Brexit process: the negotiations over the future relationship.

“Frictionless EU trade and regulatory alignment is vital for UK prosperity and jobs. The deal remains inadequate on services, which make up 80% of the UK economy. And big questions remain about the feasibility of negotiating a new trade agreement deep enough in a 14-month transition period."

Even if Johnson took the UK out without a deal, he would soon come calling for his free trade agreement – and be presented with May’s deal once again.