Jonathan Portes assesses the extent to which predictions about trade and migration before the Brexit vote have materialised, highlighting that trade has been reduced by additional barriers but the extent to which liberalisation would increase migration flows in the short term was underestimated.

While the picture’s hardly pretty and certainly not what advocates of Brexit envisioned, none of it surprises economists. As a former Bank of England official observed: “You run a trade war against yourself, bad things happen.”

EU countries have, on the whole, absorbed the shock of Brexit. But in Britain, trade is down – and prices are up.

Anas Zein Al-Abdeen owns a chain of four Middle Eastern coffee houses around Birmingham. But, the 40-year-old says, while customers are plentiful, staff are another matter.

New checks coming into effect from 1st October look to make food shortages worsen and increase prices.