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How has Brexit changed EU–UK trade flows?
01/01/2024
This paper estimates how Brexit has affected goods trade between the United Kingdom and European Union. Using product-level trade flows between the EU and all other countries in the world as a comparison group, we find a sharp decline in trade from the UK to the EU and significant but smaller reductions in trade from the EU to the UK.
Brexit’s Long-Run Effects on the U.K. Economy - John van Reenen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology [pdf]
What will be the long-run economic effects of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union—informally known as Brexit? Compared with remaining in the European Union, there will inevitably be higher trade costs with the rest of Europe, which accounts for about half of all U.K. trade.
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
21/12/2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.
Research by the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University has shown that UK exports to the EU fell by an average of 22.9% in the first 15 months after the introduction of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, highlighting the continuing challenges that UK firms are facing.
Northern Ireland has no voice in managing its energy supply post-Brexit, new research shows
05/12/2022
The UK's exit from the EU has plunged Ireland's all-island energy market into a democratic deficit with decisions on Northern Ireland's energy supply no longer in the hands of its citizens and government, new research has shown.
Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are the main policy impediment to international trade, yet little is known about their pass-through to prices. This paper exploits the Brexit trade policy shock to quantify how NTBs affect consumer prices and welfare. The increase in NTBs raised prices by 6%, implying a pass-through of 50-80%.
By the end of 2021, Brexit had already cost UK households a total of £5.8 billion in higher food bills – new LSE research
01/12/2022
Leaving the European Union (EU) added an average of £210 to household food bills over the two years to the end of 2021, costing UK consumers a total of £5.8 billion, new research from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics finds.
How have the numbers of doctors in the NHS who come from the EU and the European Free Trade Association changed since the Brexit referendum in 2016? And do certain specialties face particular problems? Martha McCarey and Mark Dayan take a closer look at what’s happened since the vote.
How has Brexit changed EU-UK trade flows?
19/10/2022
This paper estimates how Brexit has affected goods trade between the United Kingdom and European Union. Using product-level trade flows between the EU and all other countries in the world as a comparison group, we find a sharp decline in trade from the UK to the EU and significant but smaller reductions in trade from the EU to the UK.
New research shows freedom of movement is not toxic to Leavers, who are almost as positive about it as Remainers
05/09/2022
There is a widespread assumption that freedom of movement with the EU is highly unpopular among people who identify as Leavers. Paul Willner, Todd Hartman, and Richard Bentall present data from a large (>2K) sample showing that this assumption is mistaken: freedom of movement is almost as acceptable to Leavers as it is to Remainers.
Brexit has damaged Britain’s competitiveness, and will make us poorer in the decade ahead
22/06/2022
Brexit has not had the expected effect of narrowly reducing exports to the EU, but has instead more broadly reduced how open and competitive Britain’s economy is, which will reduce productivity and wages in the decade ahead, according to new joint Resolution Foundation and LSE research.
Rebordering Britain and Britons after Brexit is an innovative research project exploring the long-term impacts of Brexit on migration between the EU and UK to uncover what this reveals about Britain’s migration story and future.
Brexit has cost the UK economy billions of pounds in lost trade and tax revenues, according to research shared with ITV News by the Centre for European Reform. / It estimates the economy is 5% smaller than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.
Now that many advanced economies have recovered and are close to – or above – their pre-pandemic level of output, we can compare Britain’s economic performance to its peers. The results are troubling.
This paper examines how international trade has developed between Britain and the EU since the end of 2019 to mid 2021.
The Brexit vote precipitated the unravelling of the UK's membership of the world's deepest economic integration agreement. The paper reviews evidence on the realized economic effects of Brexit.
Over the past year, Agnese Romiti from the Department of Economics at the University of Strathclyde and Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes from the University of California-Merced have been working on a project examining the effect of the Brexit referendum held in 2016 on university applications from EU students.
Johnson's much-trumpeted FTAs “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.
It would be wrong to focus too much on 2021 when looking at the effects of Brexit on UK trade. We have just published a new paper looking at how it affected UK trade between 2015 and 2018. It shows for the first time that fears about Brexit weakened the UK’s trading position long before the vote to leave the EU even took place.
We analyse the effects of uncertainty and anticipation shocks associated with the 2016 Brexit vote as a treatment on trade between the UK and 14 EU and 14 non-EU trading partners, using the synthetic control method (SCM).
This paper examines the macro-economic benefits of the Single Market in goods and services by simulating a counterfactual scenario in which tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reintroduced. In this counterfactual scenario, intra-EU trade flows are significantly reduced.
Policy analysis indicates health-sensitive trade and subsidy reforms are needed in the UK to avoid adverse dietary health impacts post-Brexit
28/06/2021
The United Kingdom’s food system will be greatly impacted by Brexit-related trade deals and policy developments—with implications for dietary risk factors and public health. Here we use an integrated economic–health modelling framework to analyse the impacts of different policy approaches to Brexit.
The cost of uncoupling - Nature
10/02/2020
If the UK leaves the European Union single market without a suitable trade deal, then electricity trade with its European Union partners could be disrupted. New research estimates the 2030 cost of a hard electricity Brexit to Britain at €300 million per year.
Research suggests bots generated social media stories during EU Referendum - Swansea University
22/11/2017
A research collaboration from academics at Swansea University and the University of California, Berkeley suggests that information automated software agents or ‘bots’ were used to spread either ‘leave’ or ‘remain’ social media stories during and after the Brexit referendum which drove the two sides of the debate further apart.
How balanced was the debate over Brexit?
13/07/2020
In the debate over Brexit, accusations of an anti-Brexit or pro-Brexit bias by the media have been a recurring feature.