What will be the long-run economic effects of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union—informally known as Brexit? Compared with remaining in the European Union, there will inevitably be higher trade costs with the rest of Europe, which accounts for about half of all U.K. trade.

Now that many advanced economies have recovered and are close to – or above – their pre-pandemic level of output, we can compare Britain’s economic performance to its peers. The results are troubling.

This paper examines how international trade has developed between Britain and the EU since the end of 2019 to mid 2021.

Johnson's much-trumpeted FTAs “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.

This paper examines the macro-economic benefits of the Single Market in goods and services by simulating a counterfactual scenario in which tariffs and non-tariff barriers are reintroduced. In this counterfactual scenario, intra-EU trade flows are significantly reduced.