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In the UK, disillusionment with Brexit has set in. The limitations of Boris Johnson’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement are evident. But Labour’s Keir Starmer, the likely winner of the general election, has only modest ambitions for Britain’s relationship with the EU. Andrew Duff suggests that Labour should be much bolder by adopting a phased approach back to full membership.
This paper estimates how Brexit has affected goods trade between the United Kingdom and European Union. Using product-level trade flows between the EU and all other countries in the world as a comparison group, we find a sharp decline in trade from the UK to the EU and significant but smaller reductions in trade from the EU to the UK.
Brexit has not had the expected effect of narrowly reducing exports to the EU, but has instead more broadly reduced how open and competitive Britain’s economy is, which will reduce productivity and wages in the decade ahead, according to new joint Resolution Foundation and LSE research.
The transition period ended on 31 December 2020. Since that date, trade volumes have been suppressed by the impact of COVID-19, EU exit, and wider global pressures. It may not be possible to separate out the impact of these individual elements on the UK’s trade with the EU, but it is clear that EU exit has had an impact, and that new border arrangements have added costs to business.
This paper examines the early months of post-Brexit trade flows in goods between Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The introduction of a new regulatory and customs border has made it more difficult and more expensive to trade with the EU. This impacts UK firms who import and export from and to that market.
We analyse the effects of uncertainty and anticipation shocks associated with the 2016 Brexit vote as a treatment on trade between the UK and 14 EU and 14 non-EU trading partners, using the synthetic control method (SCM).
We estimate that leaving the single market and customs union had reduced UK trade by 11 per cent in March 2021. That is on top of a 10 per cent hit to trade between the referendum and leaving the single market.
The EU Goods Sub-Committee publishes its report on what the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) means for trade in goods.
The UK meat industry employs around 97,000 people and is worth an estimated £8.2 billion a year to the UK, including about £1.6 billion in exports. / This report examines the impact of the first three months of trading with the EU as a third country.
The EU Services Sub-Committee has today published its report, Beyond Brexit: trade in services, which examines the future UK-EU relationship on trade in services.
In what follows, a group of leading social scientists explore these themes, explaining what has happened in the past, the situation the UK finds itself in now, and the issues that might confront us going forward. The collection is intended as a guide to the big questions confronting the country in the years to come.
The government will not be able to conclude a large number of trade agreements at speed and maintain its much-prized regulatory autonomy after Brexit. The report says prospective trading partners are likely to tell the UK to change its standards if it wants a trade deal.
Even if the European Union and the United Kingdom conclude a highly ambitious partnership covering all areas agreed in the Political Declaration by the end of 2020, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU acquis, the internal market and the Customs Union, at the end of the transition period will inevitably create barriers to trade and cross-border exchanges that do not exist today.
A review of evidence about opportunities, challenges and risks to the North East economy and its key sectors with recommendations for action.
The aim of this briefing is to describe what happens under WTO rules if there is ‘no deal’.
The report shows that no deal will not “get Brexit done” rather, it will usher in a period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses, which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, our new report, No deal Brexit: issues, impacts, implications, reveals.
The 2016 referendum, which resulted in a narrow win for those campaigning to leave the European Union, has posed perhaps the most complex set of questions ever faced by a peacetime government.