The transition period ended on 31 December 2020. Since that date, trade volumes have been suppressed by the impact of COVID-19, EU exit, and wider global pressures. It may not be possible to separate out the impact of these individual elements on the UK’s trade with the EU, but it is clear that EU exit has had an impact, and that new border arrangements have added costs to business.

Just over a year since the UK left the single market and customs union, and despite the impact of the pandemic, which makes this kind of analysis all the trickier, we can begin to analyse the impact that Brexit has had on the UK economy. These impacts will vary significantly by sector and also by region. In this report, the authors investigate what they might be in the area of manufacturing.

The introduction of a new regulatory and customs border has made it more difficult and more expensive to trade with the EU. This impacts UK firms who import and export from and to that market.

Preparing Brexit: How ready is the UK? is our second report examining government and business preparations for the end of the transition period, building on Preparing Brexit: The scale of the task left for UK government and business, published in July.

'Yet a no deal outcome would still have profound implications for the uK. as we analyse in what follows, from trade to connectivity to foreign policy to cooperation in policing, a failure to strike an agreement with the eu will impact on us in numerous ways.'

Even if the European Union and the United Kingdom conclude a highly ambitious partnership covering all areas agreed in the Political Declaration by the end of 2020, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU acquis, the internal market and the Customs Union, at the end of the transition period will inevitably create barriers to trade and cross-border exchanges that do not exist today.

The report shows that no deal will not “get Brexit done” rather, it will usher in a period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses, which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, our new report, No deal Brexit: issues, impacts, implications, reveals.