Interesting new analysis published this week by UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE) considers how the post-Brexit immigration system has impacted the UK labour market in the two years since its introduction.

The end of the free movement has led to a shortfall of around 330,000 workers in Britain. Most are in less-skilled sectors of the economy.

The transition period ended on 31 December 2020. Since that date, trade volumes have been suppressed by the impact of COVID-19, EU exit, and wider global pressures. It may not be possible to separate out the impact of these individual elements on the UK’s trade with the EU, but it is clear that EU exit has had an impact, and that new border arrangements have added costs to business.

The introduction of a new regulatory and customs border has made it more difficult and more expensive to trade with the EU. This impacts UK firms who import and export from and to that market.

Preparing Brexit: How ready is the UK? is our second report examining government and business preparations for the end of the transition period, building on Preparing Brexit: The scale of the task left for UK government and business, published in July.

If the UK leaves the EU without a deal, the government will not be able to support all affected industries. Against a backdrop of steeply deteriorating public finances, the government will be forced into impossible choices about which businesses and industries to save. Without clear principles, the fight over subsidies will be swamped by politics.

"Our sector faces major challenges in accessing the right talent, skills and labour. As the Industrial Strategy states, the manufacturing sector is one of those most likely to need people skilled in science, technology, engineering and maths."

This week we’ve partnered with EEF on a new report ‘Navigating Brexit: the Migration Minefield’. The report highlights the need for clarity, simplicity and urgency in the Government’s messaging to stem the flow of EU citizens from the UK, taking their much needed skills with them.

We discuss the key potential upsides, possible risks and principal negotiating issues from both US and UK perspectives. We conclude that it is highly unlikely that a free trade deal between the US and the UK will be secured in the near term and that the likely potential benefits for British businesses are less than often suggested.