Ukraine and Moldova are officially on the path to membership in the European Union. The EU approved their applications in record time amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and concerns that Moldova might be targeted next. But joining the EU is a complicated process that can take years, and there’s no guarantee either country will ultimately win a seat at Europe’s biggest table.

Many people blame the EU for triggering the conflict in Ukraine. However, the EU’s failure to predict Russia’s actions does not make it responsible for them. Since the fighting began, the EU has done a lot to help Ukraine and constrain Russia’s behaviour.

Of all the possible obstacles to Britain’s smooth exit from the European Union, few can have seemed less likely than Moldova.