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How has leaving the EU affected Britain?
Jonathan Portes assesses the extent to which predictions about trade and migration before the Brexit vote have materialised, highlighting that trade has been reduced by additional barriers but the extent to which liberalisation would increase migration flows in the short term was underestimated.
Brexit has reduced UK trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, and immigration growth. New border frictions and higher transport costs pose new barriers to trade, and FDI inflows are unlikely to return to levels reached in the 1990s and 2000s.
When the Brexit transition period ended, new barriers for UK-EU trade were introduced.
Continuing the letter to Jacob Rees-Mogg, reminding him – he seems to need reminding – of the many new opportunities created by Brexit.