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Fox hopes for increased trade with far flung nations post-Brexit—but there’s a problem with his strategy.
The UK left the EU at the end of 2020, and according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, Brexit has already led to a significant slump in trade between the EU and the UK... / Brexit supporters endorsed the idea of CANZUK – an alliance between the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
Britain's specialism in traded services, some of which can be delivered electronically, has led Brexiters to claim that the country's trade will inevitably unmoor itself from Europe. In fact, Britain is not about to enter a "post-geography trading world".
This is the most chilling explanation of what Brexit will do to the UK economy after December. By @AdamPosen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
The U.K.’s hard-line Brexit backers are making their move. If they get their way on the U.K.’s new trade arrangements, they will face a test of gravity.
Boris Johnson’s team isn’t going to let economic models get in the way of a political revolution.
Martin Wolf: Britain’s demands for its negotiations with the EU are unrealistic.
"I do worry that people are starting to imagine that a trade deal with Australia is somehow a substitute for being on the doorstep of a market with 500 million people, it's not" says former Australian PM Julia Gillard.
"The model has been an empirical success in that it accurately predicts trade flows between countries for many goods and services, but for a long time some scholars believed that there was no theoretical justification for the gravity equation. However, a gravity relationship can arise in almost any trade model that includes trade costs that increase with distance."
The possibility of the UK leaving the European Union (EU) has generated an unusual degree of consensus among economists. Acrimony and rancour surrounded debates around austerity and joining the euro, but analysis from the Bank of England to the OECD to academia has all concluded that Brexit would make us economically worse off.
Their forecast of income gains from Brexit contrasts with all other economic analysis, write Thomas Sampson, Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano and John Van Reenen.
"We conclude that gravity models generate estimates of the impact of EU membership on exports which are variable but for all EU members are always positive and significant."
What happens in the next three months, perhaps even the next couple of weeks, is going to shape the fate of the country for decades. If Brexit goes ahead, in any form, it will enact a profound misreading of the nature of the contemporary political and economic world and represent an unprecedented failure of British statecraft.