UK’s exit from EU helped fuel inflation crisis, says top US economist Larry Summers.

It's a pretty damning verdict from the former secretary of the Treasury, director of the National Economic Council and president of Harvard University.

If Gordon Brown had reached a different judgment on his famous “five tests”, what might have been the economic consequences?

Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) are the main policy impediment to international trade, yet little is known about their pass-through to prices. This paper exploits the Brexit trade policy shock to quantify how NTBs affect consumer prices and welfare.

Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.

I have started reading the Brexit literature again. A recent paper – ‘What impact is Brexit having on the UK economy?’ by Graham Gudgin, Julian Jessop and Harry Western (GJW) from October 2022 argues there is no hard evidence of harm and that studies that claim to find harm are biased and/or incompetent! In this blog, I consider a few of their points in four areas.

What will be the long-run economic effects of the United Kingdom’s decision to leave the European Union—informally known as Brexit? Compared with remaining in the European Union, there will inevitably be higher trade costs with the rest of Europe, which accounts for about half of all U.K. trade.

The new Prime Minister was decisively on the side of those who claimed that the country would have a better future outside the EU.

Many Conservative party members will be wondering where they go from here. / There is talk of damage limitation and trying to save as many seats as possible in the next election.

Former Bank of England and IMF economist Peter Doyle on SkyNews: "The really big self-harm inflicted by the UK on itself was Brexit," which has made the current crisis much worse. For example: / - Trade frictions when we need to boost exports / - A weaker pound worsening inflation

Recalling Newsnight's coverage, Maitlis said: "It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it. But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn't."

This paper reviews the literature on the implications of EU membership for the UK. It concludes that membership has raised UK income levels appreciably and by much more than 1970s’ proponents of EU entry predicted. ... The economic benefits of EU membership for the UK have far exceeded the costs of budgetary transfers and regulation.

5.2% GDP shortfall ‘mostly’ down to Britain’s exit from EU, according to top think tank.

Now that many advanced economies have recovered and are close to – or above – their pre-pandemic level of output, we can compare Britain’s economic performance to its peers. The results are troubling.

@AdamPosen shows how Brexit has curtailed UK trade, FDI inflows, & immigration growth in a series of charts presented at @UKandEU's The Economics of Brexit conference 2022. #PIIECharts

Trade friction has ‘clear and robust’ impact on supermarket prices, say economists.

The Public Accounts Committee warned of "trade-offs" across "agriculture, the environment and human rights”.

Scathing report by Public Accounts Committee criticises government’s approach.

Kira Gartzou-Katsouyanni, Max Kiefel, and José Javier Olivas Osuna write that the Leave vote can be attributed partly to political discontent associated with trajectories of relative economic decline and deindustrialization.

Just over a year since the UK left the single market and customs union, and despite the impact of the pandemic, which makes this kind of analysis all the trickier, we can begin to analyse the impact that Brexit has had on the UK economy. These impacts will vary significantly by sector and also by region. In this report, the authors investigate what they might be in the area of manufacturing.

This paper examines how international trade has developed between Britain and the EU since the end of 2019 to mid 2021.

Why is the BBC giving so much time to hardline Brexiteers, asks journalist Raymond Snoddy.

We were asked to sum up the economic benefits of the UK’s new post-Brexit trade agreements. Our first observation is that if we take as a starting point the trade agreements that the UK would have been party to as a member of the EU, the government has, to date, signed no new trade agreements!

In September 2021, UK goods trade was 11.2 per cent, or £8.5 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.