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Office for Budget Responsibility

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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicted in 2018 that the so-called "divorce bill" for leaving the European Union would cost the UK between £35bn and £39bn - but the EU say the figure is over £40bn.
Jo Foster has asked her MP, Rishi Sunak, three times for help with her businesses struggling after Brexit. She told Politics Editor Ralph Blackburn he needs to face up to reality.
It’s almost 100 days since Britain completed its split from the EU -- almost five years after the referendum vote –- and a clearer picture of the consequences of the decision to leave is starting to emerge.
ALISTER Jack has been told to apologise to the people of Scotland for the "unmitigated disaster" of Brexit as he faced angry MPs in the Commons.
THERE is “no desire in Scotland to have membership of the EU”, Scotland Secretary Alister Jack has claimed despite significant evidence to the contrary. / "So does it come as a surprise to the secretary of state that a poll last year showed 69% of Scottish voters want to rejoin the EU?”
THERE have been no advantages to leaving the European Union, the Constitution Secretary has said on the second anniversary of the end of the Brexit transition period.
he OBR pours cold water on hopes for a big boost from the Pacific trade deal. / Have you ever wondered how the UK, based firmly in the north Atlantic, managed to join the free trade area known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)? After all, as the name suggests, it is for countries around the Pacific.
The Brexit benefits keep piling up! Leading financial experts are now placing the blame for rising food prices on you-know-what...
"Good to see the BBC wading into the fray at last, now that the damage it's causing is too great to conceal", one person said.
Shadow International Trade Secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds has written a letter to the government urging ministers raising his concerns over the 'mess' of a trade deal.
Some companies will have to move operations to the EU due to trade barriers, Office for Budget Responsibility says.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility has calculated that the scarring effect of covid lockdowns on the UK economy is only half of what it has cost the UK to leave the European Union.
We need the word “rejoin“ to have the same weight and significance as the word “Brexit“.
While the picture’s hardly pretty and certainly not what advocates of Brexit envisioned, none of it surprises economists. As a former Bank of England official observed: “You run a trade war against yourself, bad things happen.”
The overall cost of Britain’s break from Europe is expected to be an astronomical £220 billion over four years, dwarfing the NHS budget which was a focal part of the ‘Leave’ campaign.
The evidence increasingly shows that our decision to leave the European Union has lifted the price of imported goods, flattened business investment and damaged trade.
The 4% hit to economic output envisaged by the UK’s fiscal watchdog could cost £84.5bn, Labour and Commons library research suggests.
UK seeing ‘biggest squeeze on living standards’ on record, says head of fiscal watchdog.
The people of Scotland must be given a choice about their future given the damage inflicted by Brexit, Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson has said. / Marking two years since the end of the transition period to leave the European Union after 47 years of membership, Mr Robertson highlighted the negative impacts Brexit continues to have on Scotland’s economy.
The UK agreed to make a series of payments to the EU, as part of the deal when it left in January, often called the divorce bill.
In reality, Brexit has hobbled the UK economy, which remains the only member of the G7 — the group of advanced economies that also includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — with an economy smaller than it was before the pandemic.
LSE finds one-third decline in trading relationships under Boris Johnson’s deal – which has hit small firms hardest. / Brexit red tape means the UK has “stopped selling” many products to smaller EU countries, according to alarming new evidence of the impact on trade.
Brexit has made supply chain "bottlenecks" worse in the UK, according to the independent financial watchdog that provides the government with data.
The Office for Budget Responsibility suggested leaving the EU would reduce the UK's long-term GDP by around 4% - compared to 2% for the pandemic and lockdowns.
Office for Budget Responsibility contradicts government line. / Mr Johnson [Institute for Fiscal Studies] also said the OBR's estimated reduction in trade, productivity, and living standards from Brexit was "bigger than the expected long-run effect of the pandemic".
Brexit is dragging down the economy and its impact is set to get worse due to new trade barriers, the Government’s Budget watchdog is warning.
We were promised sunny uplands and a oven ready deal: instead we've been served extra helpings of cow excrement. As Nigel Farage admits Brexit is a disaster, car manufacturers threaten to walk and Keir Starmer calls for a renegotiation, it's time to accept reality.
Poll also shows that more than half believe it is affecting shop prices, as experts forecast it is likely to be twice as costly as Covid.
Impact of quitting EU has become top issue facing the nation, survey finds
Brexit reduces the UK’s overall output by 4% compared to if the country had remained in the EU, an expert has said.
Brexit is to blame for the Dover travel misery blighting Britons’ Easter holiday trips to the Continent, a senior Tory MP said on Monday.
The impact of Brexit on people’s earnings could be ‘substantial’, say experts. / Millions of workers in Britain will be about £1,300 worse off a year due to Brexit, leading experts have said.
Immediately after the referendum, sterling depreciated. This brought forward the impact on household incomes of what would otherwise be a slow burn change for the UK economy.
According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), shortages across various industries have been “exacerbated” by new immigration rules for EU citizens and trade barriers with the bloc.
Figure of £40.8bn buried in EU’s 2020 accounts dismissed by UK as not reflecting amount it will pay.
Northern Ireland will be the UK regional economy least impacted by Brexit, partially due to the NI Protocol, new analysis has suggested.
So how is it going? In economic terms, the past year has helped differentiate the impact of Covid from the impact of Brexit. / Doing so has exposed a hefty price being paid by many firms, as well as public service employment, for dislocation of Britain from its nearest neighbour's trading bloc.
The economy is 4 per cent lower than if the UK had remained in the European Union, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has said.
Less than two weeks after her government plunged the markets into crisis with a disastrous budget, Prime Minister Liz Truss used her closing speech at the Conservative Party conference to blame the meltdown on a nebulous anti-growth coalition.
New EU food safety regulation – coming into force next March – is ‘concerning’ exporters, MPs told.
As evidence mounts of the long-term harm being inflicted on the U.K. economy by Brexit, the government is coming under pressure to acknowledge the elephant in the room.
“Car crash!” exclaimed managing director Andrew Varga, whose Brexit progress I have been following since the referendum. News of the latest Brexit U-turn landed on him on Tuesday out of the blue. All his years of preparation for a new UK product safety mark, all his thousands of pounds wasted, all the uncountable hours and effort were rendered pointless, at a stroke.
An Ipsos poll suggests that most people think Brexit is going worse than expected.
Jeremy Hunt insisted the UK would find a way to improve trading ties with the EU without rejoining the single market. / "The latest evidence suggests that Brexit has had a significant adverse impact on UK trade, via reducing both overall trade volumes and the number of trading relationships between UK and EU firms."
Asked about feared 4% GDP slump, Jeremy Hunt says he doesn’t accept ’all’ OBR forecasts – adding ‘I accept all the ones I agree with’.
Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of any economy for which the OECD publish data.
As the pandemic recedes, the negative impacts of Brexit will become clearer and its political effects more unpredictable.
The UK’S membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership offers little gain for the British economy.
Michael Gove just claimed Brexit has “delivered” on Vote Leave’s boldest promise, suggesting it gives £350m a week to the NHS. But has it?
Political distance from Brussels has been achieved. This is not up for question. However, economically speaking, there is vast room for improvement. The OBR calculates, in its current form, that Brexit is reducing our GDP by four per cent. This compares to around 1.5 per cent caused by Covid.
THE economic impact of Brexit and food checks at the Irish Sea border will be examined by a new commission made up of business leaders, MPs and economists.
High inflation, low investment confidence and a weaker currency make the UK an attractive target for European suitors.
The Brexit divorce bill will cost each taxpayer on average £305 more than previously expected, according to new government figures.
The Independent revealed earlier this year government’s predicted 0.08% boost risked being an overestimate. / Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch was mocked for a prediction the deal with Asia-Pacific countries would grow the economy by 0.08%.
Chancellor’s flagship policy will ‘alter the location rather than the volume of economic activity’, Office for Budget Responsibility concludes
Two years since Britain left the EU, Brexit is still very much at the top of the news agenda with lorry queues lengthening at Dover as exporting firms struggle with red tape.
Grant Shapps has stressed the importance of post-Brexit controls on work visas after government sources confirmed that ministers are braced for a record increase in immigration figures this month.
Brexit denialist-in-chief Jacob Rees-Mogg is still in full flow. He denies that any harm has come from Brexit – even though he can’t find any benefits.
Economists tell us Brexit will have a substantial economic impact on our lives. But how would ordinary people experience them? Ben Chu looks at the possible impact on wages, benefits and taxes.
Economists tell us Brexit will have a substantial economic impact on our lives. But how would ordinary people experience them?
Forecasts of the economic hit caused by Brexit from the UK’s budgetary watchdog are wrong, according to chancellor Jeremy Hunt.
It has been revealed that the government is considering a fourth delay to the introduction of post-Brexit import checks amid fear of their impact on the supply chain and the cost of living crisis.
The City has been plunged into something of an existential panic in recent months. Fears of international decline have crystallised in the form of a listings drought and a crack squad of City grandees are scrambling to try and steady the ship.
Many Conservative party members will be wondering where they go from here. / There is talk of damage limitation and trying to save as many seats as possible in the next election.
Jeremy Hunt conceded there have been damaging trade barriers with the EU created by Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
Hunt repeatedly said he did not “accept” the OBR’s prediction that Brexit will cause a 4 per cent GDP reduction in the long term.
Almost seven years on from the Brexit referendum, there remains uncertainty over the future UK-EU relationship. Reflecting on the lessons from the last seven years, Neil Kinnock argues there remains a clear case for the UK being an economic, political, social, scientific and cultural part of the Europe of the future.
"I have three priorities for our economy: growth, growth and growth." / Yet several reports say one significant factor to have impacted negatively on Britain's growth and economy — also creating a barrier to future performance — is Brexit itself.
The protocol could leave Northern Ireland's economy 2.6% smaller compared with a scenario in which the UK stayed in the EU, new analysis suggests.
The former UKIP leader made the surprise comment as he was presented with the mounting evidence that quitting the European Union has damaged the British economy.
Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who once vowed to leave the country if Brexit turned out to be a disaster, has stated: "Brexit has failed."
Former UKIP leader blames Tory government for not taking advantage of leaving the EU.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said borrowing would be almost £60bn if the UK leaves without a deal - up from £29.3bn if it does get a deal.
The Office for Budget Responsibility analysed a particular type of a no-deal Brexit scenario – the less disruptive of the two presented by the IMF in April.
Bleak impact including higher prices in shops is revealed in OBR report accompanying Rishi Sunak's spending review.
No-deal Brexit would cause unemployment to peak at over 8 per cent next year, rather than 7.5 per cent, and knock 2 percentage points off growth, says official forecaster.
The Covid threat to GDP is waning, but don’t expect the pain wrought by leaving the EU to subside any time soon.
THE UK has “missed out on much of the recovery in global trade” following the pandemic likely as a result of Brexit, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has said.
Office for Budget Responsibility predicts 'negligible' effect - warning 'uncertainty' will only be lifted after 'several years'.
A NEW report has shown that the UK government’s prospective Free Trade Agreements are projected to only add between 0% and 0.16% to the UK’s Gross Domestic Product, up to fifteen years after their implementation.
Grays, a town near London, voted overwhelmingly in favour of Brexit. But three years after severing ties with the EU, some are feeling remorse as the country lurches from one crisis to another.
Trade secretary had dismissed predictions by Office for Budget Responsibility. / Rishi Sunak has refused to accept Brexit has damaged the UK's trade with other countries – despite the government's own figures showing a sharp drop.
Sir Richard Branson has ruled out investing new cash in the UK for the foreseeable future, claiming the economy has been hamstrung by trade barriers and “red tape” brought on by Brexit.
Chris Heaton-Harris says "no", leaving the EU has not damaged the economy. / Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris was left struggling to defend the economic case for Brexit, after being put on the spot by Sky News’ Sophy Ridge.
Even after years of division and vitriol, it seems like Britain still needs to talk about Brexit. / More than six years after voting to leave the European Union, the UK is facing a prolonged recession and a deep cost-of-living crisis. Last week’s Autumn Statement heralded years of higher taxes and cuts to public spending.
Britain has “significantly underperformed” compared with the EU and US since the vote to leave in June 2016, Goldman Sachs claims.
‘One of the biggest blows to our productivity – and a self-inflicted one – was leaving Europe’s single market,’ says Michael Day.
One in eight traders have lost business – while a quarter of small firms consider moving operations out of Britain, Dispatches reports.
Brexit is forecast to do more permanent damage to the economy than Covid. But this self-inflicted wound can be healed.
Five years on from the Brexit vote, Mark Dayan looks back at the main claims that were made about the NHS before the referendum took place. Which have been proven right and which have proven to be unfounded?
UK trade with the EU has fallen sharply, new figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility show.
In September 2021, UK goods trade was 11.2 per cent, or £8.5 billion, lower than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU’s single market and customs union.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts that, although the UK economy will almost fully bounce back from the pandemic, it's economy and eventually the jobs market will suffer for decades due to Brexit.
The UK government has made exporting and importing difficult and costly. Everybody who was not a Brexit fantasist saw it coming.
Figures on the cost of Brexit reported by ITV last week could have given a misleading impression of the cost of leaving the EU.
Since our first post-EU referendum EFO in November 2016, our forecasts have assumed that total UK imports and exports will eventually both be 15 per cent lower than had we stayed in the EU. This reduction in trade intensity drives the 4 per cent reduction in long-run potential productivity we assume will eventually result from our departure from the EU.
It’s five years since Britain voted to leave the EU – so what number should really have been on the side of the Vote Leave bus? Ben Chu examines the real impact of Brexit on the UK’s economy.
Half a decade after the referendum, the economic hit to the UK caused by Brexit is becoming clearer. But it will be years before the true impact is understood
There's one thing that the two candidates locked in a bad-tempered battle to be Britain's next prime minister agree on: Brexit is nothing to do with any of the woes facing the UK right now. / The inconvenient truth, as the head of the port of Dover has confirmed, is that Brexit has indeed contributed to the chaos.
It was “always inevitable” that Brexit would have an impact on UK trade with the rest of Europe, chancellor Rishi Sunak has admitted.
Jonathan Portes assesses the extent to which predictions about trade and migration before the Brexit vote have materialised, highlighting that trade has been reduced by additional barriers but the extent to which liberalisation would increase migration flows in the short term was underestimated.
Brexit has in fact cost every person in the UK £1,200 so far, spending watchdog says – as economy flat-lines.
PM and chancellor say they will not publish projections until late November despite them being ready next week.
Leaving the European Union had an impact on the UK economy equivalent to the coronavirus pandemic and likely reduced output by 4%, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility told the BBC.
Leaving the European Union had an impact on the UK economy equivalent to the coronavirus pandemic and likely reduced output by 4%, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility told the BBC.
Senior economist Michael Saunders thinks country "wouldn’t be talking about an austerity budget" if it had stayed in the EU.
The latest Food and Drink Federation (FDF) trade snapshot in the UK has made for sobering reading, revealing that export trade with our nearest neighbours across market segments was down by 13.1% against figures from three years ago, at £20.2 billion.
The UK government has been warned of a recession in the absence of a Brexit deal with the EU.
The problems have been "amplified" by Brexit, the former Bank of England governor said.
A weaker than expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has left the UK as the only G7 country with a smaller economy than in early 2020, according to official figures likely to further undermine the government’s tax-cutting measures.
International Agreements Committee warns of dangers of ‘arbitary’ Diwali deadline. / The government's rushed negotiating strategy for getting a Brexit free trade agreement (FTA) with India risks a bad deal, a parliamentary committee has warned.
The UK is liable to pay €47.5 billion euros ($A75.7 billion) to the European Union as part of its post-Brexit financial settlement, according to the EU’s consolidated budget report for 2020.
Britain remains on track for a record fall in living standards over the two years to the end of March 2024, despite an upward revision to growth forecasts, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday.
The UK’s goods trade is lagging far behind the rest of the G7, while services are booming.
In the US they call it ‘starving the beast’ – cut taxes and, as revenue decreases, you create irresistible pressure for austerity.
The UK economy is yet to feel the worst impacts of Britain’s divorce from the European Union, senior business leaders said, in spite of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s recent efforts to smooth relations with the bloc.
But the EU does not want to reopen debates about the terms of the Brexit deal: “Only in the UK are people still arguing about Brexit,” a source said. “No one in Europe thinks about it any more.”
"As far as trade is concerned, things are panning out in the manner once stupidly dismissed as “Project Fear”. And we will be poorer as a result."

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