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“I’ve always argued that the only way you can get frictionless trade is to actually be in the Single Market.”
Philip Hammond - Tariff free trade deals would only contribute a tiny amount to our GDP... so we must quash "this myth that third country trade deals will solve all our problems"
n this episode of #3BlokesInAPub, Jason and Graham are again joined by Robert Stephenson to talk about the impact of Brexit on the economy, politics and people of Ireland.
In this EXPLOSIVE episode of #3Blokes In The Pub, Jason and Graham travel to Geneva, Switzerland, a city filled with the world’s leading experts in international trade, intergovernmental law and global geo-economics on a two day fact-finding mission.
In this EXPLOSIVE episode of #3Blokes In The Pub, Jason and Graham travel to Geneva, Switzerland, a city filled with the world’s leading experts in international trade, intergovernmental law and global geo-economics on a two day fact-finding mission.
"Not one of those things he promised us has been delivered. So I have seen no evidence that that man is capable of negotiating his way out of the tea room in the House of Commons, let alone us into the biggest market in the world." - Peter Kyle
"Desperate" Britain is "delusional" to expect a favourable trade deal with the US, an ex-Obama advisor has warned, as Dominic Raab seeks to "fire up" the UK's trade relationship with North America.
'I'm not opposed to tariff cuts, but this article which pretends tariffs are levied on the RETAIL price of a good and that consumers will see a 10% saving at the shops from a 10% tariff cut. / Flatly misleading. Trade illiterate.'
Every time Johnson Government waffles on about NI's integral place in UK Internal Market and guarantee of unfettered trade with Great Britain, this Commission summary of what businesses need to prepare for under Tories' "Great Brexit Deal" acts as a very effective lie detector.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) is launching a campaign to have all countries of the ECCAS sub-regional bloc operationalize the ECCAS Preferential Tariff (known for short in French as TP/CEEAC) – one of the instruments for easing trade in the zone.
I loathe the term ‘World Trade Deal’ more than words can express. It is everything I hate about trade politics. It combines a pithy soundbite politicians with an agenda can deliver with confidence, with a layer of deception reliant on the complexity of trade to pass unchallenged on Sunday talk shows.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is one of the key priorities of Africa´s Agenda 2063 and a flagship project for the continent. Signed by 49 African countries and ratified by 14 countries so far, it needs 8 more ratifications to enter into force.
A crucial part of HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC)’s IT system that will monitor import and export goods after Brexit, will not be ready to operate independently of the system it is been designed to replace, MPs warned this week.
"While it is clear that ambitions have changed with respect to the past, AmCham EU calls on negotiators to seek an ambitious and comprehensive future partnership. We support a deal comprising zero tariffs, zero quotas, and zero barriers. Any deal should maintain regulatory alignment where possible ..."
The American Chamber of Commerce to the EU (AmCham-EU) published a cross-sectoral position paper on Tuesday turning the screw on the UK Government’s hard-line negotiating stance. Although it urges both sides to “work to mitigate disruption as much as possible”, the paper deals a devastating blow to Britain’s present strategy.
The threat of a hard British exit from the European Union looms large over a country that has a big stake in the process but no official say: Turkey.
The border has dominated Irish thoughts on Brexit. Amid the political tensions, several English voices have called for Ireland's dependence on UK trade to be used as leverage in negotiations. Are they right?
While European businesses are increasingly more confident about investing in ASEAN, the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is creating uncertainty for some business prospects according to a recent survey by the EU-ASEAN Business Council.
Australia and the European Union (EU) launched negotiations for a free trade agreement (FTA) on 18 June 2018. As a bloc, the EU is Australia's second largest trading partner, third largest export destination, and second largest services export market. The EU was Australia's largest source of foreign investment in 2018.
EU CHIEF Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is to meet Sinn Féin and DUP representatives today as the countdown begins to the UK leaving the European Union on Friday.
The government's own impact assessment of the Brexit deal confirms firms will have to pay fees, fill out forms and face border inspections when sending goods within the UK.
After a question about Brexit, trade and the Irish border, Boris Johnson says there wouldn't be tariffs with the EU because the UK could rely on GATT 24 allowing tariff free trade. That's wrong - both sides need to agree a trade deal first.
Business groups have variously described a 22-minute call with the prime minister and the Cabinet Office Minister Michael Gove as "terrible", "disappointing" and "more of a lecture".
Survey shows 88% of 100 leading academics believe a Canada-style trade deal with the EU will have a "negative" impact on Britain's economy.
Now, the country risks becoming an also-ran, losing its easy access to the huge EU common market, unable to strike a groundbreaking deal with the United States and on the brink of a trade fight with China.
Changes coming to Amazon’s European fulfilment services when the Brexit transition period ends on 31 December will have a significant impact on many UK and EU sellers.
Wilbur Ross, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, has urged other countries to exploit the “God-given opportunity” to steal business from the U.K., according to a report in The Times.
The UK Trade Policy Observatory said even a new customs deal would inevitably lead to considerable disruption relative to the current frictionless cross-border goods trade with the EU
Nowadays, Britain’s words and actions on the world stage are so at odds with its values that one must wonder what has happened to the country. Since the June 2016 Brexit referendum, British foreign policy seems to have all but collapsed — and even to have disowned its past and its governing ideas.
The British overseas territory Anguilla is against Brexit. Residents, who could not vote in the referendum, fear they will be hit hard by trade barriers to neighboring EU territories. Now, the Caribbean island is considering leaving the United Kingdom.
Tony's in Helsinki at the EPP's Spitzenkandidat coronation / No deal and what it means for Irish businesses (spoiler - lot's of paperwork) / BDO's Carol Lynch gives ground level view on what will happen at Irish ports and to Irish businesses if no deal is agreed, or later if a free trade agreement is reached.
The EU's long-held insistence on level playing field provisions continues. How does the UK see its commitments to the Irish Protocol and the Political Declaration and what impact will deviation have on its credibility in other trade talks?
Because of rules of origin, even if the UK enters into a trade agreement with the EU, UK manufacturers embedded in pan-European supply chains are going to face new bureaucracy and costs, with long-run implications for their continued viability.
Proposed procedures for importing and exporting of goods are “convoluted, expensive and will seriously hamper trade with other countries”, says BMPA.
Sir Ivan Rogers says EU could 'pull the plug' on talks. / The desire of Tory leadership candidates to appeal to the party’s Brexiteer grassroots could “wreck” any chance of the UK securing a trade deal with the EU, the former British ambassador to Brussels has warned.
The U.K.’s hard-line Brexit backers are making their move. If they get their way on the U.K.’s new trade arrangements, they will face a test of gravity.
The United Kingdom will delay the introduction of border checks on imports from the European Union by as much as six months in a bid to avoid piling on the pain for British business and choking off vital food supplies.
The idea that Britain can leave the European Union and maintain frictionless trade with the bloc of 27 countries is officially dead.
Britain will spend 705 million pounds on border infrastructure to help keep trade flowing after its transition deal with the European Union expires at the end of the year, Cabinet Secretary Michael Gove said on Sunday.
The announcement that British Steel is to enter insolvency is the latest example of how uncertainty over Brexit is threatening livelihoods across the country. This does not just affect the 5,000 workers at Scunthorpe, but also a support staff of 20,000 across the whole supply chain. / Sadly, many other firms face the same danger ...
How could a Peoples Vote happen and how should it be handled? Plus lunch with trade expert David Henig.
We look ahead to next week's European Council and the Peoples Vote March on 20 October.
What do Chris and Steve A do while Steve B is away? Get stuck in to some proper trade nerdery, that's what. We discuss how the UK can realise its global trade ambitions, whether EU trade deals can be rolled over, and what a unilateral zero tariff regime would do to the country's bank balance. Rock & roll!
Dmitry Grozoubinski is our guest this week to talk about what the hell a "WTO terms deal" is(n't), and we weigh up the risks and chances of a disorderly Brexit. Plus easily the sexiest Lie of the Week ever.
Coffee tariffs and orange tariffs and zero tariffs oh my! Chris in conversation with Twitter trade legend and man of mystery, Jim Cornelius, self-made walking encyclopedia of all things tariff-related, and scourge of so-called liberal leavers everywhere.
It has been described as “the most ambitious” and progressive trade deal ever signed by the EU, but what does CETA do? The historic agreement was signed into law in September 2017 by the EU and Canada, after years of negotiation and a protest campaign.
The Welsh Government's approach to agreeing post-Brexit legislation with the UK government is "high-risk and flawed", a report has said.
Brexit secretary David Davis has been mocked for claiming that Britain can secure a free trade area that's "10 times the size" of the European Union. / Liberal Democrat MEP Catherine Bearder pointed out that this would actually be 1.5 times bigger than the entire world economy.
Most of our trade (57% of exports and 66% of imports in 2016) is with countries we have EU trade agreements with, not under WTO rules.
When scrolling through comments you often see people say "they need us more than we need them". So we have tried to respond to that once and for all. We look at if the EU relies on the UK for trade, how the EU budget will cope without the UK and if the EU needs the UK as a security ally.
The Tory leadership race has brought a no-deal Brexit closer. Most candidates have either elevated No Deal to a heightened form of Brexit - a "clean" Brexit - or have insisted it is preferable to an extension beyond the current Article 50 deadline of 31 October.
The European Parliament has commissioned dozens of impact assessments or studies on Brexit from experts, across a broad range of policy areas, which are publicly available online. This webpage will be regularly updated to include further relevant publications.
The European Parliament has voted against opening trade talks between the EU and the United States amid fears over Donald Trump‘s trade and environmental policies.
European Union Trade Commissioner Phil Hogan said the U.K. will have “full responsibility” for any damage to the British economy after the post-Brexit transition expires...
The European Union (EU) is the world's largest single market and the EU Trade Helpdesk is your one-stop-shop to access it. The EU is committed to helping exporters like you in its trade partner countries with the information you need ...
The European Union and Japan will launch the world’s largest free trade zone early next year after their economic partnership cleared a final hurdle on Wednesday. Some 70 percent of European Parliament lawmakers backed the agreement that binds two economies accounting for about a third of global gross domestic product and signals their rejection of protectionism.
On 15 October, the Council adopted decisions on the signature of two agreements between the EU and Singapore: a free trade agreement, an investment protection agreement.
New Zealand is negotiating a free trade agreement with the European Union, one of the world's largest trading entities. We're aiming for a modern, high-quality agreement.
Britain leaving the EU with no deal would be "extremely bad" for both parties, the former head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said.
As Britain prepares to carry out its own trade negotiations for the first time in decades, the government has launched a scheme to recruit and train school-leavers as future commerce experts.
Boris Johnson, the front-runner to be Britain’s next prime minister, has raised the prospect of a shock for the world’s fifth-biggest economy by pledging to leave the European Union on Oct. 31 without a transition deal if necessary.
An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations.
In the political realm, no one knows how Brexit’s long-running theater of the absurd will end. But for much of the business world, Britain’s departure from the European Union has effectively happened.
Fruit importers have begun redirecting European trade routes away from Dover-Calais to minimise disruption from the end of the transition period.
Boris Johnson moves into 10 Downing Street on a promise to deliver Brexit within months. However, German business leaders have urged him to avoid a disorderly Brexit. Trade between the two countries is already falling.
Britain would have no more than a few months to negotiate a new trade agreement with Brussels, a process that typically takes years.
Even if the European Union and the United Kingdom conclude a highly ambitious partnership covering all areas agreed in the Political Declaration by the end of 2020, the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU acquis, the internal market and the Customs Union, at the end of the transition period will inevitably create barriers to trade and cross-border exchanges that do not exist today.
FORGET visas, cheap Europe trips and free trade. There is one fear that dwarfs all others for Australia, and it’s looking more likely as Brexit turns sour. / GLOBAL security, trade and the stability of the international system could take a body blow if Britain crashes out of the European Union (EU) in a bitter “no deal” scenario.
Major trade bodies say they have been stopped from telling member companies about plans for customs and trade. / "We are collectively of the opinion that members are not ready for a no-deal exit on March 29."
The government is facing an unprecedented backlash from five key industries over Boris Johnson's plans for post-Brexit trading arrangements.
"The model has been an empirical success in that it accurately predicts trade flows between countries for many goods and services, but for a long time some scholars believed that there was no theoretical justification for the gravity equation. However, a gravity relationship can arise in almost any trade model that includes trade costs that increase with distance."
This guidance informs people working in the UK electricity market and other stakeholders about changes to the cross-border trading and supply of electricity from 1 January 2021.
For 30 years the UK and Japan have been the best of trading partners – but no longer. What’s changed?
This article, circulated widely on social media at the time of the referendum, claimed in error that EU tariffs starve African farmers. Since then it has been updated with an errata explaining its stated facts and conclusion are wrong. No tariffs are paid except on weapons. / NOTE: This article has now been removed from CAPX. We've linked to a copy from the WayBackMachine web archive.]
What kind of trade arrangements could the UK negotiate with the European Union after leaving? Newsnight's James O'Brien was joined by former Director-General of the World Trade Organisation Pascal Lamy, and Vote Leave's Andrea Leadsom to discuss.
Is it a vindication of the economic merits of Brexit and a symbol of the clout of ‘global Britain’? The short answer is no.
A number of obscure pieces of trade law have taken on near mythical status in the Brexit debate. One of them is Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (Gatt).
Either Boris Johnson is trying to bamboozle the public with jargon or he just doesn’t get the basics of how global trade works. Both are bad omens for the man who is likely to be our next prime minister and tasked with navigating a way through the Brexit mess.
"The first week of Johnson’s new administration has seen both speculation about, and the beginning of some answers to, how he intends to undertake Brexit. The outrageousness of that situation shouldn’t pass without comment."
Standup4Brexit has teamed up with Esther McVey MP to launch a video series explaining the WTO to the British Public and make No-Deal Brexit sound less scary. I spent years as a negotiator for Australia at the WTO, so I was keen to see what nuggets of wisdom were coming out of the StandUp4Brexit oven. I should have perhaps gone to McDonalds instead.
Mark Carney debunks the counterfactual claim made by leading Brexiters, including Boris Johnson, that Art. 24 of GATT allows for continued free trade with the EU after a no deal exit.
Identify customs tariffs, tariff rate quotas, trade remedies, regulatory requirements and preferential regimes applicable to your product.
Mercosur has been the most significant initiative for a deeper and more constructive integration in South America. Despite the fact that it is mainly known as a common market, its contribution to social stability is absolutely notable.
Ministers have been accused of peddling “dodgy statistics” after an embarrassing blunder saw the Government overstate how much Britain imports from countries outside the European Union by a staggering £300bn.
A group of MPs has questioned if the government can meet its promise of "unfettered" trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
The Sun ... "we made our calculations on retail prices, when tariffs are actually applied when goods arrive in the UK. There were also mistakes in the calculations for individual items." / "The article also stated that we pay trade charges on more than 13,000 items from outside the EU. In fact, for many of these goods, no tariffs or charges are payable."
The 2016 referendum, which resulted in a narrow win for those campaigning to leave the European Union, has posed perhaps the most complex set of questions ever faced by a peacetime government.
The political implications of a no deal outcome threaten to be every bit as significant as its economic fallout, Anand Menon and Jonathan Portes write.
The report shows that no deal will not “get Brexit done” rather, it will usher in a period of prolonged uncertainty for citizens, workers and businesses, which is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon, our new report, No deal Brexit: issues, impacts, implications, reveals.
The UK risks "crashing out" of 40 trade agreements spanning five continents in the event of a no-deal Brexit, a business organisation has warned.
'There is a very real risk that a disorderly Brexit will lead to an immediate reliance on overseas imports, produced to lower standards, while many UK farms struggle to survive,' NFU says
Pascal Lamy, who was director general of the WTO, between 2005 and 2013, said there was a stark choice for the UK between 'minor' and 'great' trade relations with the country’s largest trading partner.
New Zealand now stands between the United Kingdom and its hopes of entering the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement (CPTPP).
“We want to use GATT Article 24” means “We want a free trade agreement in goods that complies with WTO rules”. It doesn’t say much.
Trade board and certification body call for improved contingency plan to avoid potential nine-month trade delays.
Kirsty Wark interviews Pascal Lamy, former EU trade commissioner and former director general of the World Trade Organisation.
Non-tariff measures (NTMs) could cause major fractures in post-exit trade relations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU), knocking up to US$32 billion, or 14 per cent, off of UK exports to the EU, according to a new UNCTAD study.
The prospect of the UK formulating its own trade policy following Brexit is likely to have implications for the existing Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) between the European Union (EU) and some African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries, and the UK’s future trading arrangements with the ACP.
The government has estimated a post-Brexit trade deal with the United States would boost the UK economy by 0.16% over the next 15 years.
In this IPR Public Lecture, Professor of Industrial Strategy at the Aston Business School David Bailey considers what Brexit might mean for the UK automotive sector, and in turn for industrial policy in the UK.
Old "Project Fear" scare stories from the 2016 Remain campaign about masses of customs paperwork and increased costs for traders, as well as restrictions on immigration for vital sectors, are becoming reality.
Negotiator and trade expert Dmitry Grozoubinski explains the reality of No Deal. / What’s in the WAB and has any May idea ever died quite so quickly? Final learnings from the EU Election campaign that everyone pretended never was. The pros and cons of milkshaking. Astroturfing for fun and profit.
Rules determining the country of origin of traded goods for the purpose of implementing the terms of a trade agreement re tariffs, quotas and remedies.
Putting politics aside, let us look at a more technical aspect of free trade negotiations – rules of origin (ROO).
The government has offered to publish its most recent internal assessment of the impact on business and trade of a no-deal Brexit, in the face of a possible Commons defeat.
So is there a business case for CANZUK as a primary relationship for any of these four countries? Let’s look at where our potential partners currently sell goods and services.
There’s a whole other side of trade. A side of trade that typically doesn’t garner the headlines because its complicated, boring, and much more difficult for politicians to be photographed standing in front of. A side of trade you hear mentioned briefly as important, to much somber nodding of heads, before everyone invariably goes back to arguing about tariffs and containers.
As director of the Institute of Commonwealth Studies, I know what this institution does – and the notion that it can pick up the slack when the UK leaves the EU is nonsense.
Steve Analyst threads a selection of videos recalling Leave campaigners' claims we future trade with the EU after Brexit.
CIVIL servants are looking at "funding streams" to support Northern Ireland farmers in the event of a no deal Brexit disrupting cross-border trade in milk and other commodities.
Taiwan objects to Britain's proposed rules for managing its trade in services after it leaves the European Union and has requested negotiations at the World Trade Organization, according to a document seen by Reuters today.
The divorce from the EU looks set to be delayed and could be softened or even abandoned, but the cost of separation is already apparent.
The events of the past few weeks have burst the Ripping Yarns bubble and cruelly exposed the shortcomings of political bluster and bravado.
Continuity agreements are in place with a small number of countries but replicating the arrangements that Britain currently benefits from will be the overriding priority throughout the transition period - if there is one - and beyond.
"We conclude that gravity models generate estimates of the impact of EU membership on exports which are variable but for all EU members are always positive and significant."
Should the aim be limiting damage or designing a bold future? / Japanese negotiators remain skeptical about the U.K.’s ability to handle multiple FTA negotiations simultaneously / What is evident, however, is that no country wants to conclude a definitive trade deal with the U.K. without knowing the final shape of the EU-U.K. partnership.
A wave of disruptions is rocking the world trading system. Britain’s divorce from the European Union has turned messy, while the U.S. trade war with China has investors on edge. The cost of such risks is substantial, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics of OECD data.
It is only by claiming that trading 'on WTO terms' would be fine that Brexiters manage to be so relaxed about the UK leaving the EU without a deal, but the WTO does not ensure the removal of all barriers to trade.
The UK worries about being “trapped” in a backstop – but can’t present an alternative. / Toxic language is defining the Brexit debate. It is turning an intensely complex and complicated subject into something being argued over emotionally, certainly in the UK.
The government will not be able to conclude a large number of trade agreements at speed and maintain its much-prized regulatory autonomy after Brexit. The report says prospective trading partners are likely to tell the UK to change its standards if it wants a trade deal.
Non-disclosure deals would bind those joining expert trade advisory groups for at least seven years, Sky News has learned.
I'm a former trade negotiator at the WTO and other places for Australia. Explaining trade accessibly is my only party trick.
This issue of Commonwealth Trade Hot Topics analyses ‘Brexit’ – the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU) – and shows that the effects for some Commonwealth countries may be severe unless specific actions are taken to avoid this.
1 February 2020 marks the first anniversary of the entry into force of the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA). In the first ten months following the implementation of the agreement, EU exports to Japan went up by 6.6% compared to the same period the year before.
The Trump administration has made it clear to Boris Johnson that any post-Brexit US-UK free trade deal would rely on Britain dropping plans to tax large American tech firms, according to reports.
Most forms of Brexit will worsen the country’s finances and reduce space for new initiatives to address child poverty, social care and left-behind communities that some argue drove the Brexit vote, a report has found.
America Letter: Congress members voice support for backstop and Belfast agreement. / This week the issue of Brexit made it across the Atlantic as members of US Congress voiced their concern about its impact on Northern Ireland.
'For Britain’s economic self-interest, as well as the wider political interests of the western community of nations, Britain should remain in the EU', Kevin Rudd argues
Andrew Percy attacks ‘cack-handed’ move to scrap import tariffs if UK crashes out in October – triggering Ottawa’s refusal to ‘roll over’ existing EU deal.
Tariffs will be cut to zero on 87% of imports to the UK as part of a temporary no-deal plan but prices of some imports including meat, shoes, underpants and cars will go up.
The United Kingdom (UK) risks losing up to 14 per cent of its exports to the European Union (EU) in a so-called “no-deal” Brexit, according to a new study by the UN Conference on Trade, Investment and Development (UNCTAD).
Donald Trump’s trade representative to demand greater access for agricultural goods.
The European Union (EU) and Vietnam on Sunday signed a long-awaited free trade deal that will slash duties on almost all goods, an agreement that pushes back against a rising tide of global protectionism and hailed as a "milestone" by Brussels.
Theresa May's Brexit deal has been defeated by MPs and the UK is creeping closer to leaving the EU without a deal. But how does a no-deal Brexit actually affect you?
Brexiteers have been advocating this route, believing it represents the purest Brexit and would be best for Britain. But what are the WTO terms and are Brexiteers right to promise a better future for the UK under these rules? How will WTO rules affect the UK in the event of a no-deal Brexit?
This means the UK would immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process.
Maybe it has not been explained often and simply enough why there won't be frictionless trade - even with a trade agreement. So let me try to do this: WHAT IT TAKES TO HAVE FRICTIONLESS TRADE - AND WHY WE WON'T HAVE IT WITH THE EU EVEN WITH A TRADE DEAL (thread)
The Q&A session taken from the Brexit, What leaving on WTO terms will mean, held in Trowbridge on the 26/9/2018 in front of an audience of 180.
As a European Union member, the UK is automatically part of about 40 trade agreements which the EU has with more than 70 countries. If the UK leaves the EU without a deal it would lose these trade deals immediately - worth about 11% of total UK trade.
Even without the chaos of ‘no deal’, trading only on WTO terms post Brexit would mean substantial disruption to supply chains, with new tariffs, regulatory barriers and customs checks applying on day one of Brexit, explains Richard Barfield. Three sectors with the most jobs at risk are administration and support services, wholesale trade, and legal and accounting services.
How Britain resolves — or fails to resolve — Brexit and the terms of its divorce from Europe, is of more than passing interest to Australia.
For supporters of Boris Johnson, it’s doubly useful to pretend that international trade rules offer a free pass to a painless Brexit.
If you only trade within the UK and Europe, Rules of Origin will not have concerned you. Brexit could make these Rules become a serious concern to you.
But it won’t be straightforward to go it alone, and politicians should carefully, and candidly, set out the actual benefits of an independent trade policy.
The world moved a step closer to a free-for-all in international trade as Robert Azevedo, World Trade Organisation (WTO) director general, announces he plans to quit with over a year to go on his four-year contract.

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