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Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), has told PoliticsHome Brexit and last year’s political turmoil may be among factors that have contributed to the IMF's gloomy economic forecasts for the UK.
Philip Hammond - Tariff free trade deals would only contribute a tiny amount to our GDP... so we must quash "this myth that third country trade deals will solve all our problems"
Britain is already heading for the worst coronavirus-induced slump of any major economy. Now fears are rising that businesses could be slammed by a second body blow this year — the failure of trade talks with the European Union.
'Immense damage' done by Brexit is something I cannot ignore: Sadiq Khan attacks government 'denial'
12/01/2023
Sadiq Khan is expected to attack the Government’s “denial and avoidance” of the “immense damage” he says Brexit is wreaking upon the country.
The leader of Plaid Cymru Adam Price calls on Labour to make the positive case for the single market and customs union.
It’s almost 100 days since Britain completed its split from the EU -- almost five years after the referendum vote –- and a clearer picture of the consequences of the decision to leave is starting to emerge.
The first concerns the United Kingdom. Aside from a few hard-liners, Brexit -- the decision to leave the common market made by Boris Johnson's administration -- has become a disaster.
Probably not the anniversary present the government was hoping to offer the public.
Ever wondered why your taxes are so high and public services are in such a poor state? Now you know.
“You bring Brexiters on, you never challenge them. You let them talk utter rubbish about Brexit. Year after year after year.”
A Scottish Conservative MSP was left floundering on BBC Newsnight last night as the live audience revealed what they really thought about the state of the country right now after Brexit.
THE UK Government’s trade minister admitted she doesn’t know the impact of the New Zealand deal on GDP compared to the cost of Brexit during questioning from MPs.
Critics say my estimate – that the British economy is around 5 per cent smaller due to Brexit – is implausibly large. This insight tests their scepticism against other ways to estimate the cost of Brexit.
A trade collapse with the EU shows that the damage will linger on far longer than Liz Truss did.
A comprehensive and impartial assessment of the implications of Brexit for economic activity in the UK and the rest of the world.
A Bank of England policy maker has warned that a wave of business investment was “stopped in its tracks” by Brexit, dealing a blow to the UK economy worth £1,000 ($1,204) per households.
Andrew Bailey said the deal was broadly in line with what the BOE forecast in November.
Boost to UK economy from US trade deal could be 450 times smaller than loss from no-deal Brexit, government analysis finds
03/03/2020
Official document puts likely benefits of free trade agreement with Donald Trump at below 0.2 per cent of GDP – and possibly as little as 0.02 per cent.
A couple of points are worth observing already. Nearly six years on from the Leave vote, the supposed opportunities of Brexit remain entirely conspicuous by their absence. And ramping up the rhetoric by claiming “immense opportunity” does not change this reality.
The report estimated the PM's deal would be worse for the economy than continuing with the current indecision and uncertainty
Prime minister's proposal worse for economy than Theresa May's deal, analysis says.
Some companies will have to move operations to the EU due to trade barriers, Office for Budget Responsibility says.
According to our study, the deal now being discussed would reduce per capita GDP by 6.4%, as opposed to 4.9%
The next, Brexit-induced recession will be most painful for poorer households, who are also those that voted Leave in greatest numbers.
PM vowed to ‘take back control’ – but dithering has handed advantage to countries on other side of the table, Institute for Government says.
It’s not easy to wipe the trademark grin off Richard Branson’s face, but one way is to ask the British billionaire about the challenges facing his home country.
Another Brexit advertising campaign. They've replaced sporting events as signs of the changing seasons. Instead of Wimbledon or the Olympics, we get Michael Gove talking gibberish on television and further millions poured into preparedness exercises for an outcome with no tangible benefits.
Brexit and pandemic have cost UK businesses £250bn each but EU departure tally now rising faster than Covid disruption
25/01/2022
The political choice of Brexit has cost UK businesses as much as the unforeseeable Covid pandemic.
The pound has settled above its recent lows vs. both the USD and the EUR, but it remains in a clearly weakened positioned. EUR/GBP is still seen at 0.85 by year-end while UK politics concerning the issues of Brexit and sleaze may impact the performance of the pound, economists at Rabobank report.
The independent Office for Budget Responsibility has calculated that the scarring effect of covid lockdowns on the UK economy is only half of what it has cost the UK to leave the European Union.
THE UK will be the only major economy to plunge into recession the year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned – with the finger pointed at the “economic self-harm of Brexit” on the three year anniversary of Britain leaving the EU.
Brexit brings a blight, not a boon
22/11/2022
We need the word “rejoin“ to have the same weight and significance as the word “Brexit“.
Anthony Robinson presents a panoramic view of the current travails defining a post-Brexit nation.
Brexit Britain: Here's what the financial markets tell us about the economy effects of leaving the EU – Professor David McMillan
27/01/2022
A year after Britain left the European Union, you could be forgiven for thinking the current economic gloom has nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with Covid.
But Brexit minister now claims hard Brexit was ‘essential’.
Brexit has cost the UK economy billions of pounds in lost trade and tax revenues, according to research shared with ITV News by the Centre for European Reform. / It estimates the economy is 5% smaller than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.
The evidence increasingly shows that our decision to leave the European Union has lifted the price of imported goods, flattened business investment and damaged trade.
The 4% hit to economic output envisaged by the UK’s fiscal watchdog could cost £84.5bn, Labour and Commons library research suggests.
Brexit could cost the UK up to 30 times more than it will gain back from striking a Trump trade deal
02/03/2020
Brexit could cost the UK economy up to 30 times as much as the country hopes to gain back from securing a new trade deal with US President Donald Trump, official figures suggest.
Brexit crippled the UK economy – Liz Truss just made it worse | Economics | New Statesman [5 mins]
22/10/2022
Economist Duncan Weldon and the New Statesman’s polling expert explore how Brexit and austerity have damaged the UK economy and set the stage for Liz Truss’s “mismanagement.”
UK seeing ‘biggest squeeze on living standards’ on record, says head of fiscal watchdog.
Brexit damage continues to mount - GOV.SCOT
31/12/2022
The people of Scotland must be given a choice about their future given the damage inflicted by Brexit, Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson has said. / Marking two years since the end of the transition period to leave the European Union after 47 years of membership, Mr Robertson highlighted the negative impacts Brexit continues to have on Scotland’s economy.
Brexit deal means ‘£70bn hit to UK by 2029'
30/10/2019
Boris Johnson's Brexit deal will leave the UK £70bn worse off than if it had remained in the EU, a study by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) has found.
Difficulties cannot be dismissed as no more than teething problems, say experts.
Slump in business investment since vote to leave EU has cost each household £1,000 in lost productivity
In reality, Brexit has hobbled the UK economy, which remains the only member of the G7 — the group of advanced economies that also includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — with an economy smaller than it was before the pandemic.
Economists at Natixis are trying to examine the effects on the UK economy of the June 2016 referendum that triggered Brexit. They look at the different important variables and seek to determine what the overall effect of Brexit has been on the United Kingdom.
The OBR forecast that Brexit would cost the UK economy 4% of GDP now looks ridiculously optimistic as the damage mounts.
Wonder what happened to 'let's fund our NHS instead?' / New research has found Brexit has cost the UK government £40 billion a year in lost tax revenue.
Jeremy Hunt’s budget shows that leaving the EU is only paying off in a parallel universe.
The Office for Budget Responsibility suggested leaving the EU would reduce the UK's long-term GDP by around 4% - compared to 2% for the pandemic and lockdowns.
Thierry Breton, who is also single market commissioner, believes downsides of leaving bloc are exposed by pandemic
Six years on, it seems Europe still hasn’t got the memo. For that matter, neither has Britain. The United Kingdom, rather than leaping boldly into a brave new future, is imploding. Europe, meanwhile, seems to have found a new sense of purpose.
UK companies have seen their new orders decline at the fastest pace for nearly two years this month, with manufacturing recording the steepest fall in export sales since May 2020 as firms experienced Brexit-related constraints, a survey shows.
Brexit hitting UK economy and damage set to worsen with new trade barriers, Budget watchdog warns
07/03/2024
Brexit is dragging down the economy and its impact is set to get worse due to new trade barriers, the Government’s Budget watchdog is warning.
UK economy could be comparable to “Slovakia” in 10 years - says economist Duncan Weldon. / Will Dunn is joined by Duncan Weldon ... The two discuss the “uniquely” bad situation of the British economy, what role Brexit played in getting us here...
As Prime Minister Boris Johnson prepares to depart Downing Street, tossed from office by his own party, his legacy — the opening lines of his eventual obituary — will call him the man who “got Brexit done.” / So how is that going? What can be said about the post-Brexit Britain that Johnson is leaving behind?
The International Monetary Fund ruffled feathers across the Irish Sea with its new forecast for the UK economy this week, now expecting GDP growth to slow to a paltry 1.2pc in 2023, by far the slowest amongst the G7 economies.
Home-grown problems shave 0.2 per cent off UK GDP, while euro zone economy grows by the same amount.
The UK economy rediscovered a reverse gear in January as renewed coronavirus lockdowns knocked output while trade suffered a Brexit hit, according to official figures.
Johnson's much-trumpeted FTAs “barely scratch the surface of the UK’s challenge to make up the GDP lost by leaving the EU”.
Rees-Mogg’s efforts to reap economic benefits from Brexit has come up woefully short.
Impact of quitting EU has become top issue facing the nation, survey finds
Exporters forced to fill in 48 million customs declarations and 140,000 health certificates over eight-month period.
Brexit reduces the UK’s overall output by 4% compared to if the country had remained in the EU, an expert has said.
Brexit regret: Why the ‘undeniable disaster’ finally hit home with the British public in 2022
01/01/2023
Public opinion shifted against Brexit after a deluge of damning evidence on economic costs.
Brexit is to blame for the Dover travel misery blighting Britons’ Easter holiday trips to the Continent, a senior Tory MP said on Monday.
Brexit to slash 0.5% from GDP in the first quarter, Office for Budget Responsibility says
03/03/2021
Disruption at Dover blamed for hit to UK supply chains.
Damage will be four times greater than hit to EU, study says - after Boris Johnson refused to carry out his own.
Brexit trade deal with New Zealand will have 'close to zero' benefit to UK economy, government admits
18/06/2020
Deal could lower welfare of the population and shrink GDP.
The UK’s much-vaunted post-Brexit trade deals will only increase the country’s GDP by a minuscule amount over the next 15 years, a report by the National Audit Office (NAO) reveals today.
European Central Bank research also indicates that a significant number of UK firms have ceased trading with the EU due to increased bureaucracy.
In our series looking at life after Brexit, the European parliament’s former negotiator Guy Verhofstadt argues that Britain exchanged a Jaguar for a Ford Fiesta in the 2016 referendum.
Brexit will decimate UK services exports – but remarkably clueless politicians would rather remain silent
08/07/2019
Leaving the single market will come as a huge blow to the services sector. Rather than acknowledging that fact, our ruling class have opted to press on.
From the outside, nothing much has changed yet. From the inside, however, the UK has undergone a radical and at times ugly transformation. The June 2016 referendum has helped set off a chain of events that has impacted many aspects of life in the country.
5.2% GDP shortfall ‘mostly’ down to Britain’s exit from EU, according to top think tank.
Brexit will be more harmful for the UK’s economy than Covid-19, the official public finance forecaster predicted.
The Scottish Government paper claims Brexit is damaging business, migration and devolution itself, with External Affairs Secretary Angus Robertson (below) insisting “Scotland has to consider its future path” when the coronavirus pandemic is over.
The ruling Conservatives’ efforts to big up their paltry free trade deals with Australia and New Zealand took something of a comic turn this week, with the revelation that the UK Government was shipping signed copies of The Beano to the two countries.
Brexit, two years on – so far, so bad
31/01/2023
31 January marks the two-year anniversary of the UK’s official withdrawal from the EU. Investment Monitor examines how hard Brexit has hit the UK economy so far.
Brexit: despatches from the downside – No 21
10/02/2024
Poor regulation of harmful chemicals, the City losing control of trillions, the music industry on its knees ... more Brexit consequences.
Yes, that headline is correct. The UK’s trade performance this year fell to its worst level since records began in 1955. And the cause, according to analysts and a headline article in the FT today – Brexit.
Brexit… out of fashion in Somerset
04/05/2021
It would be fair to say that businesses in Somerset are now really starting to feel the effects of Brexit and our new trade deals with the EU and the rest of the world. From all the businesses I have spoken to so far the effects have ranged from bureaucratic nightmares with unnecessary paperwork and extra costs to complete shutdowns of exports.
GDP shows negative growth for first time in nearly 7 years.
The UK debate about Brexit’s impact on the economy has ranged from non-existent to unserious. Labour is avoiding the subject, to try to regain lost voters in pro-Brexit constituencies, and the government immediately changes the subject to vaccines or free trade deals.
Britain’s exit from the European Union will cost the bloc around 0.5% of economic growth over the next 24 months, but Brexit will be more than four times more painful for the United Kingdom, the European Commission said on Thursday.
Britain's economic recovery from coronavirus will be slowed for two years by Brexit, EU forecasts
06/11/2020
Businesses will have to adjust to new trading conditions in the middle of a pandemic.
The team at Brompton Bicycle Ltd. thought they were prepared for Brexit.
Admission lays bare limited benefits of ‘ambitious’ agreement with Donald Trump.
A British fisherman has expressed his regret over voting for Brexit during an appearance on Danish TV.
New EU food safety regulation – coming into force next March – is ‘concerning’ exporters, MPs told.
As evidence mounts of the long-term harm being inflicted on the U.K. economy by Brexit, the government is coming under pressure to acknowledge the elephant in the room.
South Yorkshire to lose £900m and Tees Valley and Durham £750m, Michael Gove told – despite pledge to ‘match’ EU funds
“Car crash!” exclaimed managing director Andrew Varga, whose Brexit progress I have been following since the referendum. News of the latest Brexit U-turn landed on him on Tuesday out of the blue. All his years of preparation for a new UK product safety mark, all his thousands of pounds wasted, all the uncountable hours and effort were rendered pointless, at a stroke.
"The UK chose Brexit in a referendum, but the government then chose a particularly hard form of Brexit, which maximized the economic cost."
Cabinet minister in ‘complete denial’ over Brexit harm to Britain’s economy which experts put at £31 billion
13/06/2022
Treasury silent on damage being caused by Brexit to Britain’s economy and Bank of England accused of being reluctant to talk about it.
Some 110 business leaders have warned U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson of dire consequences if he fails to sign a trade deal with the European Union before the Brexit transition period ends in six months.
Asked about feared 4% GDP slump, Jeremy Hunt says he doesn’t accept ’all’ OBR forecasts – adding ‘I accept all the ones I agree with’.
The UK economy has been forecast to suffer an over £700bn blow to output due to the collision of Covid-19 and Brexit, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned today.
Could an independent Wales go it alone?
09/08/2019
Wales is not too poor to be an independent nation. The ex-first minister of Wales believes so anyway, though others are less sure. So, how would Wales fare economically if it had to go it alone in a post-Brexit world?
Household incomes are around £1,500 year lower today than they were expected to be before the Brexit referendum – with the UK having experienced the sharpest income growth slowdown of any economy for which the OECD publish data.
As the pandemic recedes, the negative impacts of Brexit will become clearer and its political effects more unpredictable.
CPTPP will not make up for Brexit
16/04/2023
The UK’S membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership offers little gain for the British economy.
Debunking the paper championed by Jacob Rees Mogg claiming a no-deal Brexit would boost the economy
11/09/2018
The Brexit debate deserves so much better than Economists for Free Trade’s latest offering. Their paper, championed by Jacob Rees-Mogg, tries to make the case for leaving the EU without a deal and trading under World Trade Organization rules.
In this week's update from ‘downside bunker’, more evidence emerges that Britain has effectively declared a trade war on itself.
Did Michael Gove Really Just Say Brexit Delivered On The Promise To Send £350m To The NHS?
03/10/2023
Michael Gove just claimed Brexit has “delivered” on Vote Leave’s boldest promise, suggesting it gives £350m a week to the NHS. But has it?
Don’t pretend Australia Brexit trade deal will have ‘noticeable’ benefits, MPs tell government
06/07/2022
Cross-party international trade committee says agreement unlikely to be detectable at supermarket tills.
Political distance from Brussels has been achieved. This is not up for question. However, economically speaking, there is vast room for improvement. The OBR calculates, in its current form, that Brexit is reducing our GDP by four per cent. This compares to around 1.5 per cent caused by Covid.
Economic growth shudders to a halt as manufacturing slides in last GDP update before the general election
10/12/2019
Last update before Thursday's election reveals flat growth in the UK's GDP for October and the last quarter
THE economic impact of Brexit and food checks at the Irish Sea border will be examined by a new commission made up of business leaders, MPs and economists.
A Brexit involving staying in the customs union would leave the UK £80bn worse off a year than if it had remained in the EU, a report says. / The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said tax income would fall by £13bn a year.
Former Conservative Party chairman says on BBC Question "this is a word one isn’t supposed to use anymore" in attack on UK's problems.
John Cole explores the government's response to a petition calling for an enquiry into the impact of Brexit before it's debated in parliament.
Accountancy firm warns of stalled economic recovery without EU trade agreement.
The UK has experienced a sharp slowdown in income growth while inflation has risen, warns the Resolution Foundation think tank.
An honest assessment of Brexit from Fareed Zakaria of CNN... "On virtually every measure, from business investment to exports to employment Britain is falling behind its peers."
A UK-first consultation has been launched to gather evidence on the biggest issues facing all industries - including farming - since Brexit.
On trade, finance, migration, food standards and more, the UK suffers fresh ignominy on a daily basis.
Top trade experts say conditions for hidden benefits claimed by Kemi Badenoch are ‘highly unlikely’.
Flagship post-Brexit trade deal worth even less than ministers claimed, official estimates show
25/11/2023
The Independent revealed earlier this year government’s predicted 0.08% boost risked being an overestimate. / Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch was mocked for a prediction the deal with Asia-Pacific countries would grow the economy by 0.08%.
ONS figures show GDP fell by 0.3 per cent in April, with all three main sectors suffering a fall in output for the first time since January 2021.
Two years since Britain left the EU, Brexit is still very much at the top of the news agenda with lorry queues lengthening at Dover as exporting firms struggle with red tape.
George Eustice and Liz Truss have reportedly rowed over a proposed trade deal between the UK and Australia.
The former chancellor said the Conservatives, Labour and national broadcasters "won’t talk about it", but the split with the EU is to blame.
Global Britain has failed – what next?
16/02/2024
The vision of post-Brexit Britain was one of international trade deals that would propel the country into a new era of prosperity. That vision of “Global Britain” is now dead. Thomas Sampson argues that the only viable alternative is a closer trade relationship with the EU.
Going Back: What Britain should do to join the European Union - European Policy Centre [pdf]
04/03/2024
In the UK, disillusionment with Brexit has set in. The limitations of Boris Johnson’s Trade and Cooperation Agreement are evident. But Labour’s Keir Starmer, the likely winner of the general election, has only modest ambitions for Britain’s relationship with the EU. Andrew Duff suggests that Labour should be much bolder by adopting a phased approach back to full membership.
Hashtag Brexit denial
17/11/2022
Brexit denialist-in-chief Jacob Rees-Mogg is still in full flow. He denies that any harm has come from Brexit – even though he can’t find any benefits.
Economists tell us Brexit will have a substantial economic impact on our lives. But how would ordinary people experience them? Ben Chu looks at the possible impact on wages, benefits and taxes.
Economists tell us Brexit will have a substantial economic impact on our lives. But how would ordinary people experience them?
In the months after Boris Johnson signed his post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union, the coronavirus masked the economic damage of leaving the bloc. As the pandemic drags on, the cost is becoming clearer -- and voters are noticing.
Following the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, economists set about forecasting what Brexit meant for the future of the British economy. But how accurate did those forecasts end up being?
Brexit barriers are having a significant impact on North East small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), hitting their exports as they struggle with regulations and red tape, a new report this week reveals. The region’s universities are another sector badly hit...
What should we call a project that poleaxes the economy, destroys our global reputation and threatens political stability in Northern Ireland? If we had known what would come to pass, how would we have voted on it six years ago?
Under the UK’s new immigration system, migrants from the European Union face more restrictive rules than those from the rest of the world. The effects on overall migration numbers may be limited, but the skills and sectoral mix of migrants may look substantially different.
How Much Has Brexit Actually Cost The UK?
31/01/2020
We looked at breakdowns by analysts and the government on the money spent so far, and the estimates on what is still to come.
How much has Brexit cost the UK economy?
21/06/2023
How much has Brexit cost the UK economy? The best publicised estimate is that produced by John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, who concludes that UK GDP is currently about 5% lower than it would have been had we not voted to leave.
Analysis: The UK’s revised-down Q3 figures should come as no surprise given business has been in second gear since 2016.
CPTPP member countries have a combined population of 500 million and GDP of £9 trillion. For reference, although the EU is a similar size, with a GDP of £11 trillion, the value of our total trade to the EU is much higher, at £557 billion.
Everyone can see that it is failing, but pretending it can work is a precondition for positions of authority.
[Irish] Employers' group Ibec has warned economic growth next year could be more than halved if the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
Media outlets around the world have been documenting Britain’s Brexit ‘bregret’ as economic headwinds hit our shores.
Britain is facing a rough road that holds little prospect of promised glory days.
NPR's Sacha Pfeiffer talks with Financial Times political editor George Parker about the continuing effects Brexit has had on U.K. politics and the economy.
I have started reading the Brexit literature again. A recent paper – ‘What impact is Brexit having on the UK economy?’ by Graham Gudgin, Julian Jessop and Harry Western (GJW) from October 2022 argues there is no hard evidence of harm and that studies that claim to find harm are biased and/or incompetent! In this blog, I consider a few of their points in four areas.
Is it a vindication of the economic merits of Brexit and a symbol of the clout of ‘global Britain’? The short answer is no.
‘Sparkling wine contains same pressure as tyre of large van’: Industry voices concern over health and safety.
Hunt repeatedly said he did not “accept” the OBR’s prediction that Brexit will cause a 4 per cent GDP reduction in the long term.
Australia has wanted the new agreement but, unlike Britain, has been in no screaming hurry for it. And, unlike Boris Johnson, the Australian Prime Minister faces no domestic political imperative to seal the deal.
Fishing rows notwithstanding, much of Europe looks on at the UK’s plight with astonishment – and even, still, sympathy.
Lessons from seven lean years of Brexit
28/04/2023
Almost seven years on from the Brexit referendum, there remains uncertainty over the future UK-EU relationship. Reflecting on the lessons from the last seven years, Neil Kinnock argues there remains a clear case for the UK being an economic, political, social, scientific and cultural part of the Europe of the future.
Liars of the year: Our rundown of the terrible pork pies that disgraced and degraded public life in 2023
20/12/2023
After holding off some formidable competition, Michelle Mone has claimed the coveted title of The New European’s Liar of the Year for 2023.
THE UK Government failed to heed warnings over the damage Brexit would do to Scotland’s food and farming sectors, despite “clearly being aware of the consequences”, a Scottish minister has said.
Taxes cut on birds’ eggs, raw hides, fur skins and ultra-strong spirits – but UK does not export them anyway.
"I have three priorities for our economy: growth, growth and growth." / Yet several reports say one significant factor to have impacted negatively on Britain's growth and economy — also creating a barrier to future performance — is Brexit itself.
Analysis: trade could be a drag on recovery for years to come rather than the high-octane propellent the government promised.
Michael Gove has failed to name a single change from Brexit that has “made business easier”, as criticism of the economic harm from the trade deal grows.
Polls show average annual gap between those who believe it was ‘wrong’ to vote to Leave compared to ‘right’ has risen to double digits for the first time. / A growing number of Britons say the UK was wrong to Brexit, according to a Standard analysis of more than 200 polls.
Read it and weep. With no 'sunlit uplands' in sight, further research into the impact of Brexit confirms some of our worst fears.
EIGHT in 10 smaller firms which face being impacted by the imposition of import checks next year have said they are not fully ready to comply with the new paperwork.
The protocol could leave Northern Ireland's economy 2.6% smaller compared with a scenario in which the UK stayed in the EU, new analysis suggests.
Nigel Farage: ‘Brexit has failed’
16/05/2023
Former UKIP leader blames Tory government for not taking advantage of leaving the EU.
No Deal Brexit Is Back With A Vengeance
09/06/2020
The political implications of a no deal outcome threaten to be every bit as significant as its economic fallout, Anand Menon and Jonathan Portes write.
Andrew Bailey said failure to agree to deal would cause long-term damage to UK economy
The Office for Budget Responsibility analysed a particular type of a no-deal Brexit scenario – the less disruptive of the two presented by the IMF in April.
No-deal Brexit would be 'catastrophic' for British businesses after pandemic, warns CBI boss
11/06/2020
Dame Carolyn Fairbairn likens walking away from trade talks to ‘setting fire to the garden shed’ when the house is already in flames.
No-deal Brexit would cause unemployment to peak at over 8 per cent next year, rather than 7.5 per cent, and knock 2 percentage points off growth, says official forecaster.
Pascal Lamy, who was director general of the WTO, between 2005 and 2013, said there was a stark choice for the UK between 'minor' and 'great' trade relations with the country’s largest trading partner.
Warning from head of North East England Chamber of Commerce is echoed by other organisations.
The Covid threat to GDP is waning, but don’t expect the pain wrought by leaving the EU to subside any time soon.
British Chambers of Commerce urges government to ‘cut red tape on UK-EU goods movements’.
The sole economic modelling exercise showing material benefits for the UK from Brexit has been debunked as “doubly misleading”, further demolishing the argument that for Britain “no deal would be better than a bad deal” when it comes to the EU.
Analysis suggests London and the South East stand to benefit from repatriation of regeneration cash from Brussels. / The UK’s poorest regions could lose hundreds of millions of pounds of funding to London and the South East after Brexit, an analysis had found.
Post Brexit inflation is making UK "sick man of Europe" | Economics | The New Statesman [22 mins]
18/06/2022
A "perfect storm" of Brexit, covid and poor macroeconomic fiscal policies by the Conservatives has weakened Britain's economy and diminished the UK's standing in Europe, says economist Duncan Weldon.
Post-Brexit deal with New Zealand goes to Parliament despite ‘concerns’ over removing tariffs
26/10/2022
A post-Brexit deal between the UK and New Zealand will be “formally laid in Parliament” today despite concerns over its impact on UK producers.
A NEW report has shown that the UK government’s prospective Free Trade Agreements are projected to only add between 0% and 0.16% to the UK’s Gross Domestic Product, up to fifteen years after their implementation.
The pound is already under pressure from fears that Britain will fail to clinch a trade deal with the European Union by the end-2020 deadline.
A 0.2% contraction between April and June was weakest since fourth quarter of 2012.
'The Covid veil, now almost completely lifted, has revealed the challenges still faced by exporters struggling with customs and paperwork challenges and other Brexit constraints putting off overseas customers'
Aviva's senior economist, Stewart Robertson, discusses how the impact of Brexit on the economic landscape and what the future might look like now we have left the European Union.
The London Mayor will call for greater alignment with Europe, putting him at odds with Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.
Britain has been outside the EU’s legal regime for a year and has faced a number of impacts.
The economy cannot afford the 'double hit' of Covid-19's impact and a no-deal Brexit, Michael Russell warned. / The Scottish Government has urged the Prime Minister to extend the Brexit transition period by the maximum two years amid the coronavirus pandemic.
A Sheffield supplements firm has spent £500,000 on a new base in the Netherlands to ensure it remains profitable ‘despite the challenges of Brexit’.
Britain's economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic lagged behind that of other rich nations in the July-September period, according to official data on Thursday which underscored the interest rate dilemma facing the Bank of England.
Small towns in Midlands and North will suffer most from Boris Johnson’s Brexit trade deal, IFS says
26/02/2020
Small towns in the Midlands and North are among the areas likely to suffer most from the bare-bones trade deal Boris Johnson is seeking with Brussels, according to a respected economic thinktank.
We desperately need to rejoin the single market and customs union, whatever the former PM thinks.
Chris Heaton-Harris says "no", leaving the EU has not damaged the economy. / Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris was left struggling to defend the economic case for Brexit, after being put on the spot by Sky News’ Sophy Ridge.
Spiralling inflation, crops left in the field and travel chaos: 10 reasons Brexit has been disastrous for Britain
03/02/2022
As small businesses crumble, shelves get emptier and the care-worker shortage intensifies, life outside the EU is having a dire effect on many of us. Why aren’t politicians talking about it?
Even after years of division and vitriol, it seems like Britain still needs to talk about Brexit. / More than six years after voting to leave the European Union, the UK is facing a prolonged recession and a deep cost-of-living crisis. Last week’s Autumn Statement heralded years of higher taxes and cuts to public spending.
The commercial departments of Brexit-supporting newspapers know the damage being caused to the UK economy, and newspaper advertising revenues, by Brexit. Their editorial colleagues continue to support it anyway.
Tariffs paid on £9.5bn of UK exports to EU despite Boris Johnson’s claim of ‘tariff-free’ deal
15/11/2021
One in eight traders have lost business – while a quarter of small firms consider moving operations out of Britain, Dispatches reports.
Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak feel bound to talk lower spending to party members, but the former chancellor at least must see the folly of losing billions off our GDP.
The 10 biggest lies of Brexit
21/06/2023
Seven years since the referendum, how have the “promises” made by the most prominent Brexiteers panned out? Here’s a rundown of the 10 most spectacular untruths.
Brexit is forecast to do more permanent damage to the economy than Covid. But this self-inflicted wound can be healed.
Businesses that make sporting goods, children’s toys, jewellery and medical goods have struggled the most with the border costs imposed by the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
In this film, senior FT writers and British businesspeople examine how Brexit hit the UK economy, the political conspiracy of silence, and why there has not yet been a convincing case for a 'Brexit dividend'.
The Brexit Referendum 5 Years on – Summary of Impacts to Date (Information note from the Scottish Government) [pdf]
24/06/2021
This note summarises the evidence so far of the impacts on Brexit on Scotland. It sets out early evidence related to areas such as trade, the workforce and EU programmes.
The cost of Brexit becomes apparent
13/01/2021
Filling the GDP gap it has created will be hard.
The UK economy is 2.9 per cent smaller than it would be ... model also shows that the biggest victim of the Brexit vote has been business investment, while the weaker pound has failed to foster the big gains in exports that some Brexiters hoped for.
The cost of Brexit to June 2022
21/12/2022
My latest update estimates Brexit reduced Britain's GDP by 5.5 per cent by the second quarter of 2022. My model avoids the cherry-picking of data, and performs better than its critics’ methods.
It has been five years since Brexit “got done” – and voters and politicians alike are still counting the cost.
The Guardian’s in-house Brexit apologist
06/12/2023
Why does the newspaper continue to publish Larry Elliot’s Corbynite nonsense on the EU?
Figures on the cost of Brexit reported by ITV last week could have given a misleading impression of the cost of leaving the EU.
The impact on trade overall appears to have been broadly consistent with predictions so far, that on immigration much less negative (and perhaps even positive) and on investment somewhat worse. Perhaps the best estimate of the negative impact on Brexit on UK GDP to date is 2–3% of GDP.
It has been almost two and a half years since the United Kingdom signed its post-Brexit trade deal with the European Union (EU), which was expected to have multifaceted impacts on the UK economy.
There is still a huge disconnect between the reality of the state of the UK economy since the Brexit vote and media perceptions. I heard one presenter on BBC News say the economy is doing pretty well following the Brexit vote. The reality is very different.
The price of Brexit has been £66 billion so far, plus an impending recession — and it hasn't even started yet
07/04/2019
The damage to the UK economy due to Brexit has cost £66 billion ($86 billion) so far, and left the United Kingdom teetering at the brink of a new recession, according to economic data published last week.
It’s five years since Britain voted to leave the EU – so what number should really have been on the side of the Vote Leave bus? Ben Chu examines the real impact of Brexit on the UK’s economy.
A study by the Centre for European Reform reveals the “troubling” cost of Brexit and says the losses are now too big to ignore.
The UK economy: Brexit vs Covid-19
24/08/2020
There is an obvious flaw in advocating Brexit on the basis that it’s less costly than the worst pandemic the world has faced in a hundred years. But this aside, the claim Covid-19 is a bigger economic shock than Brexit deserves further interrogation.
The UK is heading for a decade of Italy-style decline thanks to the 'long-lasting' hit from Brexit
18/05/2021
Britain's economy is on course to deteriorate to the level of deeply-struggling Italy over the next decade if it is unable to overcome the hit taken by challenges, including Brexit, according to a new report.
Otto English dissects the disadvantages that a free trade agreement between the two countries would bring to the UK.
The UK–Australia trade deal is not really about economic gain – it’s about demonstrating post-Brexit sovereignty
18/06/2021
As expected, the UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, and his Australian counterpart, Scott Morrison, have now agreed “in principle” to a free trade agreement. The fine details are still not out in the open, but the political and economic significance of the deal is becoming clearer.
These Countries Face the Biggest Trade Risks
29/03/2019
A wave of disruptions is rocking the world trading system. Britain’s divorce from the European Union has turned messy, while the U.S. trade war with China has investors on edge. The cost of such risks is substantial, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Economics of OECD data.
The ‘remoaner elite’, the civil service, the BBC, universities, unions, refugees: anything is blamed but Brexit itself.
This week, Rishi Sunak talked of building 'an economy that embraces the opportunities of Brexit'. Here's 5 mins on Brexit's impact on the economy so far. [5 mins]
28/10/2022
This week, Rishi Sunak talked of building 'an economy that embraces the opportunities of Brexit'. Here's 5 mins on Brexit's impact on the economy so far.
CBI warns uncertainty is crippling UK economy with country at risk of lagging behind G7 competitors.
Only the reversal of Brexit can start to fix the state three prime ministers have left the country in.
British Chambers of Commerce presents government with urgent recommendations as members report struggling to sell into EU.
A CERTAIN dreary and dismal familiarity has developed around the Tories’ desperate efforts to secure trade deals with countries outwith the European Union, having decided to turn their back on the UK’s biggest export market.
Trade experts ridicule David Frost for denying his Brexit deal is responsible for exports crash
12/03/2021
Author of agreement accused of ignoring ‘every reputable trade specialist and 100 years of trade theory’
No-deal looms as deadline little more than a month away.
The Treasury will not carry out any further analysis of the economic impact of the Brexit trade deal Boris Johnson agrees with the EU or the impact of negotiations collapsing, Rishi Sunak has said.
Trust British consumers to choose whether to buy US chlorinated chicken, Tory minister says
09/06/2020
But consumers may not be given information about US meat.
Brexit uncertainty dragged U.K. investment to its worst slump since the financial crash a decade ago, leaving the economy with barely any momentum.
"Around half of the fiscal hole, and the political instability that comes with that, is down to Brexit," John Springford of the Centre for European Reform.
Leaving the European Union had an impact on the UK economy equivalent to the coronavirus pandemic and likely reduced output by 4%, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility told the BBC.
Leaving the European Union had an impact on the UK economy equivalent to the coronavirus pandemic and likely reduced output by 4%, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility told the BBC.
UK economy shrinks amid Brexit uncertainty
09/08/2019
The contraction was the first since 2012 and comes ahead of the UK's planned exit from the European Union. Chancellor of the Exchequer Sajid Javid promised the "fundamentals of the British economy are strong."
Car production slumped 24% as manufacturers shut down plants temporarily in anticipation of no-deal exit from EU that did not happen.
The UK economy contracted 0.2% between April and June, its worst performance since 2012, the Office for National Statistics said.
Britain's economy hit reverse in January on renewed coronavirus curbs while the nation's post-Brexit EU goods exports suffered a record collapse, official data showed Friday.
The drop comes despite a boost to the economy in the first quarter of the year, thanks to Brexit stockpiling.
Hopes that political stability might lead to recovery dashed by Covid-19 crisis.
Decision to leave shrank the British economy by reducing growth and spurring higher inflation, economists say.
The UK is on course to be the world's worst-performing major economy this year, according to updated predictions from the International Monetary Fund - which puts at least part of the blame on higher taxes and interest rates.
The forecast leaves the UK economy languishing behind sanctions-hit Russia.
NIESR says UK facing worse permanent damage than other rich nations due to ‘poor Covid response’ .
The latest Food and Drink Federation (FDF) trade snapshot in the UK has made for sobering reading, revealing that export trade with our nearest neighbours across market segments was down by 13.1% against figures from three years ago, at £20.2 billion.
The export of goods from the UK to the European Union fell by nearly 41%
The British economy shrank 2.9% in January as the nation was hit by a new round of coronavirus restrictions and Brexit slashed exports to the European Union
The International Trade Committee, a cross-party committee of UK members of parliament, has warned the government against “overselling” its free trade agreement (FTA) with Australia, saying that “flat-footed negotiating” has led to significant concessions without securing all possible benefits in return.
Business group downgrades GDP rises and warns dwindling investment will hurt long-term economy. / Economic growth in Britain is expected to slow to the lowest levels since the financial crisis as firms run down Brexit stockpiles, according to a leading business lobby group.
A weaker than expected recovery from the coronavirus pandemic has left the UK as the only G7 country with a smaller economy than in early 2020, according to official figures likely to further undermine the government’s tax-cutting measures.
UK likely to fall into recession after no-deal Brexit, top international credit rating agency predicts
03/07/2019
Bank economists also note that weakening world economy would amplify Brexit hit to UK.
One port operator has had to demolish building work for new checks, while other crucial customs sites do not even have planning permission yet.
The UK has recorded a record fall in trade with the EU in the first month since the end of the Brexit transition period.
UK should rejoin single market as quitting EU ‘biggest piece of self-inflicted harm,’ says Sadiq Khan
29/06/2022
Britain should push to rejoin the single market because Brexit is the “biggest piece of self-inflicted harm ever done to a country,” says Sadiq Khan.
Government modelling suggests deal could damage some UK industries like farming and food processing. / But the government's own estimates for the deal suggest it will have a negligible impact of 0.02 per cent to 0.03 per cent of GDP by 2033.
Fears for farmers and anger over dropping of pledge to bind Australia to crucial climate temperature limit.
Britain remains on track for a record fall in living standards over the two years to the end of March 2024, despite an upward revision to growth forecasts, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said on Wednesday.
‘Groundbreaking’ agreement criticised by UK farmers is part of 10-year plan to pivot to Indo-Pacific
Britons are counting the cost of Brexit as the combination of the referendum, pandemic and energy crisis takes its toll.
The UK’s goods trade is lagging far behind the rest of the G7, while services are booming.
Official figures corroborate academic studies showing sharp drop in exports since Brexit.
Official figures confirmed a 41% drop in trade during the first month after the end of the transition period - with officials saying there was evidence disruption from new customs arrangement was behind some of the fall.
Boris Johnson’s agreement estimated to cost 6.7% of expected GDP rise over 15 years.
THE UK will suffer the worst recession of any of the world's top economies as Britain's painfully high rate of inflation is exacerbated by the effects of Brexit and the UK Government's untargeted energy support scheme, a new report has found.
According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), within the last quarter of 2022, the UK imported about £33billion more than it exported to the EU. / This is the worst performance of the UK export trade balance since records began in 1997. / This is a shocking testimony that Brexit has caused fundamental deep-rooted damage to British exports.
All trade deals combined worth less than 50p per person a year, analysis of government figures shows.
Only a third of Leavers still see it as a success. So why won’t Starmer speak up?
Now that many advanced economies have recovered and are close to – or above – their pre-pandemic level of output, we can compare Britain’s economic performance to its peers. The results are troubling.
What happens if we have no deal?
15/10/2020
Mr Johnson told his cabinet this week that leaving the EU without a deal should hold “no fear” for Britain, but was he right?
World-renowned economist Adam Posen reveals some tough truths about Britain’s situation.
How vulnerable each region is to economic disruptions from Brexit: Parts of Germany are especially vulnerable.
A project manager’s disdain at chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s speech to Bloomberg's city HQ – ‘the UK will soon probably need to start offering its own nomad visa just to get people to come here,’ probably resonated with many IT contractors.
The economic fallout from leaving the EU is becoming all too apparent.
We could end up with tonnes of fish that Brits don't even like and no way of selling them to the EU before they rot.
A thorough audit of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement would foster a better relationship in the post-Brexit world we now navigate.
Government hoped to sell new guidance as ‘Brexit benefit’. / The government expects zero economic benefit from the reintroduction of crown symbols on pint glasses, ministers have admitted.
£1.5bn GDP boost from UK-Japan trade deal is not on top of existing EU-Japan deal benefits
15/09/2020
These estimated benefits are relative to 2018 when the UK (as part of the EU) had no FTA with Japan.
The think tank study indicates GDP would be 2.3 per cent higher had the UK voted to remain in the EU.
‘A terrible, self-inflicted own goal’: Kevin Maguire pins Britain’s economic woes to Brexit
12/04/2023
The Mirror man called the UK's split with the EU "a disaster, a nightmare," adding that "long term it'll take 4% off the economy."
‘Asia is taking us to the cleaners’: Emily Thornberry destroys new trade deals in the Commons
21/10/2021
"This is now the third Asia-Pacific agreement in a row where more than 80 per cent of the projected growth in trade has gone to exporters in those other countries," she said.
"As far as trade is concerned, things are panning out in the manner once stupidly dismissed as “Project Fear”. And we will be poorer as a result."
Charlie Cornish says departure from EU has harmed UK aviation sector’s ability to recruit workers.
Ellie Newis reviews two of the flagship free trade agreements that were supposed to reignite the UK economy.
“Only a total rejection of Brexit lies can fix broken Westminster politics,” Plaid Cymru Westminster leader, Liz Saville Roberts MP will today say in a keynote speech at the party’s annual conference.
‘Should be front-page news!’ – Research shows catastrophic impact of Brexit on UK economy
10/06/2022
Centre for European Reform figures show that by the end of last year, the economy was 5% - or £31 billion - smaller than it would have been if the UK had stayed in the EU.
The modelling estimates Scotland's GDP could be around 6.1% lower compared to if it remained a member of the EU.
‘Take back control’? With this Pacific trade deal, Brexit Britain has just signed it away
31/03/2023
Goodbye, food standards. Hello, corporate lobbyists. Why are we doing this, for no real economic benefit?
On fifth anniversary of referendum, nation still deeply divided by decision to leave EU.
Inflation and the cost-of-living crisis – both of which are also linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have been made worse by the cost of Brexit, according to the Ex-Secretary of the Department for Exiting the EU.
Sectors from fishing to aviation, farming to science report being bogged down in red tape, struggling to recruit staff and racking up losses for the first time.
International delivery firm ParcelHero says August’s £800m fall in EU trade adds to the UK’s economic woes.
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